Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 9
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Tondela host Felgueiras 1932 on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tondela 52%, draw 26%, Felgueiras 1932 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tondela €438K, Felgueiras 1932 €266K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Segunda Liga): Tondela rank #12 of 14, Felgueiras 1932 #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tondela goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Tondela 1559 · Felgueiras 1932 1430
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tondela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 1705
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tondela
7th in Segunda Liga · 12 pts from 7
- 10 OctWTorreense Liga Portugal 21567
- 12 SepWPortimonense Liga Portugal 21480
- 5 SepWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21509
- 28 AugLUnião de Leiria Liga Portugal 21440
- 16 AugLLeixoes Liga Portugal 21537
Felgueiras 1932
14th in Segunda Liga · 6 pts from 7
- 12 OctLBenfica B Liga Portugal 21416
- 12 SepLPenafiel Liga Portugal 21466
- 6 SepLVizela Liga Portugal 21458
- 30 AugWChaves Liga Portugal 21425
- 17 AugDAVS Liga Portugal 21431
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 12 /7 | 51.0 | 6% | 33% | 2% | 3rd |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 6 /7 | 38.2 | <1% | 1% | 44% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tondela: balanced profile (how Ricardo Costa plays) · Felgueiras 1932: balanced profile (how João Miguel da Cunha Teixeira plays)