Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 11
Tondela vs Farense
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · 15:30 UTC
Tondela host Farense on Sun 15 Nov 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tondela 39%, draw 29%, Farense 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tondela €364K, Farense €323K.
- Home advantage makes Tondela the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tondela goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Tondela 1578 · Farense 1611
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tondela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Elite) · Elo 1737
Farense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1572
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tondela
8th in Segunda Liga · 12 pts from 8
- 25 OctLAVS Liga Portugal 21542
- 10 OctWTorreense Liga Portugal 21567
- 12 SepWPortimonense Liga Portugal 21480
- 5 SepWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21509
- 28 AugLUnião de Leiria Liga Portugal 21440
Farense
5th in Segunda Liga · 14 pts from 8
- 24 OctLPenafiel Liga Portugal 21644
- 11 OctWFeirense Liga Portugal 21622
- 4 OctWChaves Liga Portugal 21605
- 13 SepDAVS Liga Portugal 21574
- 30 AugLSporting CP B Liga Portugal 21578
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 12 /8 | 50.9 | 7% | 33% | 2% | 5th |
| Farense | 14 /8 | 55.1 | 17% | 58% | <1% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct · low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tondela: balanced profile (how Ricardo Costa plays) · Farense: direct (how Zé Augusto plays)