Liga MX · Apertura - 16
Toluca vs Monterrey
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Toluca host Monterrey on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Toluca 54%, draw 26%, Monterrey 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Toluca €6.1M, Monterrey €3.0M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Toluca goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Toluca 2110 · Monterrey 2008
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Toluca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2169
Monterrey · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1925
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Toluca
4th in Liga MX · 22 pts from 13
- 22 OctDClub Tijuana Liga MX2149
- 18 OctDAtletico San Luis Liga MX2116
- 10 OctLTigres UANL Liga MX2156
- 26 SepDCruz Azul Liga MX2132
- 21 SepLSantos Laguna Liga MX2173
Monterrey
7th in Liga MX · 20 pts from 12
- 22 OctWPuebla Liga MX1989
- 19 OctWCF Pachuca Liga MX1973
- 11 OctDClub America Liga MX1971
- 26 SepLAtlante FC Liga MX1962
- 20 SepWCruz Azul Liga MX1979
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 22 /13 | 28.1 | 3% | 51% | 0% | 3rd |
| Monterrey | 20 /12 | 26.9 | 1% | 31% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Toluca: balanced profile (how A. Mohamed plays) · Monterrey: possession-based (how M. Almeyda plays)