Liga MX · Apertura - 13
Toluca vs Club Tijuana
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Toluca host Club Tijuana on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Toluca 65%, draw 21%, Club Tijuana 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Toluca €6.3M, Club Tijuana €1.8M.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Liga MX): Toluca rank #15 of 18, Club Tijuana #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Toluca goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Toluca 2115 · Club Tijuana 1877
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Toluca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2178
Club Tijuana · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1889
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Toluca
2nd in Liga MX · 21 pts from 12
- 18 OctDAtletico San Luis Liga MX2116
- 10 OctLTigres UANL Liga MX2156
- 26 SepDCruz Azul Liga MX2132
- 21 SepLSantos Laguna Liga MX2173
- 16 SepWPuebla Liga MX2161
Club Tijuana
10th in Liga MX · 16 pts from 11
- 17 OctDPuebla Liga MX1902
- 10 OctDFC Juarez Liga MX1913
- 26 SepLAtlas Liga MX1876
- 21 SepDCF Pachuca Liga MX1913
- 12 SepLClub Queretaro Liga MX1924
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 21 /12 | 29.5 | 14% | 71% | 0% | 2nd |
| Club Tijuana | 16 /11 | 23.1 | <1% | 4% | 1% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Toluca: balanced profile (how Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich plays) · Club Tijuana: balanced profile (how Washington Sebastián Abreu Gallo plays)