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Liga MX · Apertura - 12

Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca

Toluca crestTolucaTeam 2137
1–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Atletico San Luis crestAtletico San LuisTeam 1722

Match story

Toluca · draw · Atletico San Luis

Before kick-off: 78% · 14% · 8%

Live chances: Toluca 2%, draw 98%, Atletico San Luis 1% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Toluca 78%, draw 14%, Atletico San Luis 8%3' · 0–0 · Toluca 77%, draw 15%, Atletico San Luis 8%5' · 0–0 · Toluca 77%, draw 15%, Atletico San Luis 8%6' · 0–0 · Toluca 77%, draw 15%, Atletico San Luis 8%7' · 0–0 · Toluca 77%, draw 15%, Atletico San Luis 8%8' · 0–0 · Toluca 76%, draw 15%, Atletico San Luis 8%9' · 0–0 · Toluca 76%, draw 15%, Atletico San Luis 8%10' · 0–0 · Toluca 76%, draw 16%, Atletico San Luis 9%11' · 0–0 · Toluca 76%, draw 16%, Atletico San Luis 9%12' · 0–0 · Toluca 75%, draw 16%, Atletico San Luis 9%13' · 0–0 · Toluca 75%, draw 16%, Atletico San Luis 9%14' · 0–0 · Toluca 75%, draw 16%, Atletico San Luis 9%15' · 0–0 · Toluca 74%, draw 17%, Atletico San Luis 9%16' · 0–0 · Toluca 74%, draw 17%, Atletico San Luis 9%17' · 0–0 · Toluca 74%, draw 17%, Atletico San Luis 9%18' · 0–0 · Toluca 74%, draw 17%, Atletico San Luis 9%19' · 0–0 · Toluca 73%, draw 17%, Atletico San Luis 9%20' · 0–0 · Toluca 73%, draw 17%, Atletico San Luis 9%21' · 0–0 · Toluca 73%, draw 18%, Atletico San Luis 9%22' · 0–0 · Toluca 73%, draw 18%, Atletico San Luis 10%23' · 0–0 · Toluca 72%, draw 18%, Atletico San Luis 10%24' · 0–0 · Toluca 72%, draw 18%, Atletico San Luis 10%25' · 0–0 · Toluca 72%, draw 19%, Atletico San Luis 10%26' · 0–0 · Toluca 71%, draw 19%, Atletico San Luis 10%27' · 0–0 · Toluca 71%, draw 19%, Atletico San Luis 10%29' · 0–0 · Toluca 70%, draw 19%, Atletico San Luis 10%30' · 0–0 · Toluca 70%, draw 20%, Atletico San Luis 10%31' · 0–0 · Toluca 70%, draw 20%, Atletico San Luis 10%32' · 0–0 · Toluca 69%, draw 20%, Atletico San Luis 10%33' · 0–0 · Toluca 69%, draw 21%, Atletico San Luis 10%34' · 0–0 · Toluca 69%, draw 21%, Atletico San Luis 11%35' · 0–0 · Toluca 68%, draw 21%, Atletico San Luis 11%36' · 0–0 · Toluca 68%, draw 21%, Atletico San Luis 11%37' · 0–0 · Toluca 68%, draw 22%, Atletico San Luis 11%38' · 0–0 · Toluca 67%, draw 22%, Atletico San Luis 11%39' · 0–0 · Toluca 67%, draw 22%, Atletico San Luis 11%41' · 0–0 · Toluca 66%, draw 23%, Atletico San Luis 11%42' · 0–0 · Toluca 65%, draw 23%, Atletico San Luis 11%43' · 0–0 · Toluca 65%, draw 24%, Atletico San Luis 11%44' · 0–0 · Toluca 65%, draw 24%, Atletico San Luis 11%45' · 0–0 · Toluca 64%, draw 24%, Atletico San Luis 12%45+1' · 0–0 · Toluca 64%, draw 25%, Atletico San Luis 12%45+2' · 0–0 · Toluca 63%, draw 25%, Atletico San Luis 12%45+3' · 0–0 · Toluca 63%, draw 26%, Atletico San Luis 12%45+4' · 0–0 · Toluca 62%, draw 26%, Atletico San Luis 12%HT · 0–0 · Toluca 62%, draw 26%, Atletico San Luis 12%46' · 0–0 · Toluca 62%, draw 26%, Atletico San Luis 12%51' · 0–0 · Toluca 60%, draw 28%, Atletico San Luis 12%52' · 0–0 · Toluca 59%, draw 29%, Atletico San Luis 12%53' · 0–0 · Toluca 58%, draw 29%, Atletico San Luis 12%54' · 0–0 · Toluca 58%, draw 30%, Atletico San Luis 12%55' · 0–0 · Toluca 57%, draw 31%, Atletico San Luis 12%56' · 0–0 · Toluca 56%, draw 31%, Atletico San Luis 13%57' · 0–0 · Toluca 55%, draw 32%, Atletico San Luis 13%58' · 0–0 · Toluca 55%, draw 33%, Atletico San Luis 13%59' · 0–0 · Toluca 54%, draw 33%, Atletico San Luis 13%60' · 0–0 · Toluca 53%, draw 34%, Atletico San Luis 13%61' · 0–0 · Toluca 52%, draw 35%, Atletico San Luis 13%62' · 0–0 · Toluca 52%, draw 36%, Atletico San Luis 13%63' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%64' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%65' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%66' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%67' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%68' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%69' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%70' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%71' · 1–0 · Toluca 87%, draw 11%, Atletico San Luis 2%72' · 1–1 · Toluca 43%, draw 45%, Atletico San Luis 12%73' · 1–1 · Toluca 42%, draw 46%, Atletico San Luis 12%74' · 1–1 · Toluca 41%, draw 47%, Atletico San Luis 12%75' · 1–1 · Toluca 40%, draw 48%, Atletico San Luis 12%76' · 1–1 · Toluca 39%, draw 50%, Atletico San Luis 12%77' · 1–1 · Toluca 37%, draw 51%, Atletico San Luis 12%78' · 1–1 · Toluca 36%, draw 53%, Atletico San Luis 11%79' · 1–1 · Toluca 35%, draw 54%, Atletico San Luis 11%80' · 1–1 · Toluca 33%, draw 56%, Atletico San Luis 11%81' · 1–1 · Toluca 32%, draw 57%, Atletico San Luis 11%82' · 1–1 · Toluca 31%, draw 59%, Atletico San Luis 10%83' · 1–1 · Toluca 29%, draw 61%, Atletico San Luis 10%84' · 1–1 · Toluca 28%, draw 63%, Atletico San Luis 10%85' · 1–1 · Toluca 26%, draw 65%, Atletico San Luis 9%86' · 1–1 · Toluca 25%, draw 67%, Atletico San Luis 9%87' · 1–1 · Toluca 23%, draw 69%, Atletico San Luis 8%88' · 1–1 · Toluca 21%, draw 71%, Atletico San Luis 8%89' · 1–1 · Toluca 19%, draw 74%, Atletico San Luis 7%90' · 1–1 · Toluca 17%, draw 77%, Atletico San Luis 6%90+1' · 1–1 · Toluca 15%, draw 80%, Atletico San Luis 6%90+2' · 1–1 · Toluca 12%, draw 83%, Atletico San Luis 5%90+3' · 1–1 · Toluca 10%, draw 86%, Atletico San Luis 4%90+4' · 1–1 · Toluca 7%, draw 90%, Atletico San Luis 3%90+5' · 1–1 · Toluca 4%, draw 94%, Atletico San Luis 2%90+6' · 1–1 · Toluca 2%, draw 98%, Atletico San Luis 1%

Last reading, 90+6': 2% · 98% · 1%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score. Shaded: minutes without a reading.

We gave Toluca 78% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 67'Toluca:Érick Gutiérrez 1951 −3
  2. 73'Atletico San Luis:Rafael Llorente 1345 +132
  3. 83'Atletico San Luis:Leonardo Flores 1688 +2 for Rafael Llorente 1345 +132
  4. 83'Atletico San Luis:Juanpe 1671 −13* for Anderson Duarte 1767 +14
  5. 87'Atletico San Luis:Miguel García 1716 −7* for David Rodriguez 1785 +15
  6. 88'Atletico San Luis:Benjamín Galdames 1704 −7* for Sebastien Salles-lamonge 1824 +9

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-1-3-2Formations3-4-3
GH. González1970−12*
DS. Simón2144−5
DF. Pereira2178−6
DE. López2118−18*
DJ. Gallardo2173−9
MF. Romero2172−6
MHelinho2164−5
MA. Vega2194−7
MÉ. Gutiérrez1951−3
FF. Viñas1996−1
FPaulinho2079−8
CA. Mohamed2150−9
GG. Lajud1730+16
DRobson Bambu1829+2*
DE. Águila1855+10
DA. Cruz1822+11
MR. Torres1811+13
MÓ. Macías1797+12
MS. Salles-Lamonge1824+9
MR. Meraz1780+14
FD. Rodríguez1785+15
FA. Duarte1767+14
FRafa Llorente1345+132
CRaul Chabrand1551
Before kick-off: 78% · 14% · 8%(Toluca · draw · Atletico San Luis)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 1–1 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Toluca €6.1M, Atletico San Luis €1.2M.
  • Largest team-Elo gap of the Liga MX Apertura - 12: 383 points.
  • Draw chance was 16%, below the Liga MX average of 26% this round.
  • All 11 of Toluca's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Toluca

3rd in Liga MX · 20 pts from 11

  • 10 OctLTigres UANL 2156
  • 26 SepDCruz Azul 2132
  • 21 SepLSantos Laguna 2173
  • 16 SepWPuebla 2161
  • 12 SepWAtlas 2126

Atletico San Luis

15th in Liga MX · 12 pts from 11

  • 11 OctLSantos Laguna 1744
  • 27 SepWU.N.A.M. - Pumas 1697
  • 19 SepWNecaxa 1655
  • 15 SepLLeon 1656
  • 5 SepLGuadalajara Chivas 1697

Season outlook

From the Liga MX simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Toluca20 /1130.829%80%0%1st
Atletico San Luis12 /1118.90%<1%25%15th
Toluca
Atletico San Luis

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Liga MX

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

F. Pereira
F. Pereira

Toluca · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2184

S. Salles-Lamonge
S. Salles-Lamonge

Atletico San Luis · +2.0 (Good) · Elo 1816

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich

Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy

Raul Chabrand

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Toluca: balanced profile (how Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich plays) · Atletico San Luis: balanced profile (how Raul Chabrand plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.