Liga MX · Apertura - 13
Tigres UANL vs Leon
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 03:00 UTC · Estadio Universitario, Monterey
Tigres UANL host Leon on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tigres UANL 47%, draw 28%, Leon 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tigres UANL €3.2M, Leon €1.9M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tigres UANL goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Tigres UANL 1937 · Leon 1917
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tigres UANL · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 2054
Leon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1991
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tigres UANL
13th in Liga MX · 14 pts from 12
- 17 OctDGuadalajara Chivas Liga MX1944
- 10 OctWToluca Liga MX1915
- 27 SepWPuebla Liga MX1834
- 19 SepLFC Juarez Liga MX1936
- 13 SepDMonterrey Liga MX1950
Leon
7th in Liga MX · 18 pts from 12
- 18 OctLClub America Liga MX1927
- 10 OctDPuebla Liga MX1923
- 28 SepWFC Juarez Liga MX1911
- 21 SepDClub Queretaro Liga MX1963
- 15 SepWAtletico San Luis Liga MX1932
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 14 /12 | 20.4 | 0% | 1% | 9% | 13th |
| Leon | 18 /12 | 23.5 | <1% | 5% | <1% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tigres UANL: balanced profile (how Víctor Manuel Vucetich Rojas plays) · Leon: balanced profile (how Javier Marcelo Gandolfi plays)