Segunda División · Regular Season - 14
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Tenerife host AD Ceuta FC on Sun 15 Nov 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tenerife 46%, draw 28%, AD Ceuta FC 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tenerife €456K, AD Ceuta FC €455K.
- All 11 of AD Ceuta FC's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tenerife goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Tenerife 1631 · AD Ceuta FC 1621
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tenerife · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1708
AD Ceuta FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1759
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tenerife
12th in Segunda División · 14 pts from 11
- 25 OctDSabadell Spain Segunda Division1569
- 19 OctDCelta de Vigo II Spain Segunda Division1660
- 12 OctDGirona Spain Segunda Division1622
- 5 OctLCordoba Spain Segunda Division1609
- 26 SepDCadiz Spain Segunda Division1586
AD Ceuta FC
21st in Segunda División · 5 pts from 11
- 25 OctLCadiz Spain Segunda Division1626
- 18 OctLOviedo Spain Segunda Division1645
- 10 OctLSabadell Spain Segunda Division1564
- 4 OctDCastellón Spain Segunda Division1566
- 26 SepWReal Sociedad II Spain Segunda Division1567
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | 14 /11 | 47.8 | 0% | 0% | 21% | 18th |
| AD Ceuta FC | 5 /11 | 36.9 | 0% | 0% | 81% | 22nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tenerife: low-volume (how Álvaro plays) · AD Ceuta FC: balanced profile (how José Juan Romero plays)