Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 4
Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Tecnico Universitario host Mushuc Runa SC on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Tecnico Universitario 38%, draw 29%, Mushuc Runa SC 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Tecnico Universitario €253K, Mushuc Runa SC €276K.
- Home advantage makes Tecnico Universitario the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Liga Pro): Tecnico Universitario rank #4 of 16, Mushuc Runa SC #16.
- Tecnico Universitario's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Tecnico Universitario goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Tecnico Universitario 1475 · Mushuc Runa SC 1518
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Tecnico Universitario · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1611
Mushuc Runa SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1556
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Tecnico Universitario
14th in Liga Pro · 32 pts from 30
- 16 OctLDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1489
- 10 OctLManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1500
- 20 SepDDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1525
- 13 SepWLeones del Norte Ecuador Liga Pro1509
- 5 SepLLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1524
Mushuc Runa SC
11th in Liga Pro · 38 pts from 30
- 9 OctLDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1523
- 20 SepDDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1520
- 12 SepLGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1533
- 8 SepDLeones del Norte Ecuador Liga Pro1551
- 28 AugWDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1542
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 33 /33 | 42.3 | 0% | 0% | 67% | 15th |
| Mushuc Runa SC | 39 /32 | 50.9 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Tecnico Universitario: balanced profile (how Ismael Blanco plays) · Mushuc Runa SC: direct (how Angeles Paúl Vélez Ordoñez plays)