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League Two · Regular Season - 11

Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · County Ground, Swindon

Swindon Town crestSwindon TownTeam 1529
1–1
Full time
HT 1–0
Walsall crestWalsallTeam 1643

Match story

Swindon Town · draw · Walsall

Before kick-off: 32% · 29% · 39%

Live chances: Swindon Town 4%, draw 92%, Walsall 4% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 32%, draw 29%, Walsall 39%2' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 32%, draw 29%, Walsall 39%3' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 32%, draw 29%, Walsall 39%4' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 32%, draw 29%, Walsall 39%5' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 32%, draw 29%, Walsall 39%6' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 58%, draw 24%, Walsall 18%7' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 58%, draw 24%, Walsall 18%8' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 58%, draw 24%, Walsall 18%9' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 58%, draw 24%, Walsall 18%10' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 58%, draw 24%, Walsall 18%11' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 58%, draw 24%, Walsall 17%12' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 58%, draw 24%, Walsall 17%13' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 24%, Walsall 17%14' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 24%, Walsall 17%16' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 24%, Walsall 17%17' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 24%, Walsall 17%18' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 24%, Walsall 16%19' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 24%, Walsall 16%20' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 25%, Walsall 16%21' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 59%, draw 25%, Walsall 16%22' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 60%, draw 25%, Walsall 16%23' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 60%, draw 25%, Walsall 16%24' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 60%, draw 25%, Walsall 15%25' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 60%, draw 25%, Walsall 15%26' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 60%, draw 25%, Walsall 15%27' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 60%, draw 25%, Walsall 15%28' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 60%, draw 25%, Walsall 15%29' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 61%, draw 25%, Walsall 15%31' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 61%, draw 25%, Walsall 14%32' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 61%, draw 25%, Walsall 14%33' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 61%, draw 25%, Walsall 14%34' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 61%, draw 25%, Walsall 14%35' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 62%, draw 25%, Walsall 14%36' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 62%, draw 25%, Walsall 13%37' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 62%, draw 25%, Walsall 13%38' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 62%, draw 25%, Walsall 13%39' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 62%, draw 25%, Walsall 13%40' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 63%, draw 25%, Walsall 13%41' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 63%, draw 25%, Walsall 12%42' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 63%, draw 25%, Walsall 12%43' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 63%, draw 25%, Walsall 12%45' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 64%, draw 25%, Walsall 12%45+1' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 64%, draw 25%, Walsall 12%45+2' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 64%, draw 25%, Walsall 11%45+3' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 64%, draw 25%, Walsall 11%45+4' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 64%, draw 25%, Walsall 11%45+5' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 64%, draw 25%, Walsall 11%HT · 1–0 · Swindon Town 64%, draw 25%, Walsall 11%47' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 65%, draw 25%, Walsall 11%48' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 65%, draw 25%, Walsall 11%49' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 65%, draw 24%, Walsall 10%50' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 66%, draw 24%, Walsall 10%51' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 66%, draw 24%, Walsall 10%52' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 66%, draw 24%, Walsall 10%53' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 66%, draw 24%, Walsall 9%54' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 67%, draw 24%, Walsall 9%55' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 67%, draw 24%, Walsall 9%56' · 1–0 · Swindon Town 68%, draw 24%, Walsall 8%57' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 44%, Walsall 30%58' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 45%, Walsall 29%59' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 45%, Walsall 29%60' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 46%, Walsall 29%61' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 46%, Walsall 28%62' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 47%, Walsall 28%63' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 48%, Walsall 28%64' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 24%, draw 48%, Walsall 27%65' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 24%, draw 49%, Walsall 27%66' · 1–2 · Swindon Town 6%, draw 22%, Walsall 72%67' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 23%, draw 51%, Walsall 26%69' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 22%, draw 52%, Walsall 25%70' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 22%, draw 53%, Walsall 25%71' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 22%, draw 54%, Walsall 24%72' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 21%, draw 55%, Walsall 24%73' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 21%, draw 56%, Walsall 23%74' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 20%, draw 57%, Walsall 23%75' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 20%, draw 58%, Walsall 22%76' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 19%, draw 59%, Walsall 21%77' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 19%, draw 60%, Walsall 21%78' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 18%, draw 62%, Walsall 20%79' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 18%, draw 63%, Walsall 19%80' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 17%, draw 64%, Walsall 19%81' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 16%, draw 66%, Walsall 18%82' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 16%, draw 67%, Walsall 17%83' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 15%, draw 69%, Walsall 16%84' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 14%, draw 70%, Walsall 16%85' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 13%, draw 72%, Walsall 15%86' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 13%, draw 74%, Walsall 14%87' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 12%, draw 75%, Walsall 13%88' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 11%, draw 77%, Walsall 12%89' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 10%, draw 79%, Walsall 11%90' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 9%, draw 82%, Walsall 10%90+1' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 8%, draw 84%, Walsall 8%90+2' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 6%, draw 87%, Walsall 7%90+3' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 5%, draw 89%, Walsall 6%90+4' · 1–1 · Swindon Town 4%, draw 92%, Walsall 4%

Last reading, 90+4': 4% · 92% · 4%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Walsall 39% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 5'Swindon Town:Aaron Drinan 1710 −1 assist Stephan Negru 1609 0
  2. 45'Walsall:Elicha Ahui 1602 0 for Ryan Leak 1644 −1
  3. 55'Walsall:Taione Richard Evumena Sodje 1245 0
  4. 59'Walsall:L. Grant
  5. 61'Swindon Town:Matthew Virtue-Thick 1601 −2 for Joseph Hungbo 1622 0
  6. 61'Swindon Town:Louis Millard 1423 0 for antwoine hackford 1557 0
  7. 62'Swindon Town:Joe Snowdon 1627 0 for Ollie Clarke 1621 −6
  8. 69'Walsall:Charlie Crew 1768 0 for Isaac Moore 1736 0
  9. 76'Swindon Town:Jaylan Pearman 1425 −8* for Anthony Munda 1126 0
  10. 77'Swindon Town:James Ball 1612 −2
  11. 80'Swindon Town:Kaelan Majekodunmi 1389 0 for James Ball 1612 −2
  12. 81'Walsall:Lewis Simper 1461 0 for Courtney Alphonso Clarke 1626 0
  13. 81'Walsall:James Furlong 1547 0 for Mason·Hancock 1687 0
  14. 85'Walsall:Andrew Dallas 1404 −1 for Taione Richard Evumena Sodje 1245 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-2-3-1
GC. Ripley1635−2
DM. Clark1678−1
DS. Negru16090
DJ. Ball1612−2
DB. Kirkman16400
MA. Munda11260
MJ. Thomson13820
MO. Clarke1621−6
FA. Hackford15570
FA. Drinan1710−1
FJ. Hungbo16220
CIan Holloway15950
GJ. Ward17200
DD. Skura18030
DJ. Connolly17450
DR. Leak1644−1
DM. Hancock16870
MIsaac Moore17360
MS. Sprangler1672−3
MCourtney Clarke16260
MTaione Richard Evumena Sodje12450
MR. Smith16550
FA. Pressley17260
CLee Grant18220
Before kick-off: 32% · 29% · 39%(Swindon Town · draw · Walsall)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Swindon Town €214K, Walsall €230K.
  • Home advantage made Swindon Town the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Swindon Town

17th in League Two · 11 pts from 10

  • 10 OctLCrewe 1534
  • 3 OctLRochdale 1542
  • 26 SepDAccrington ST 1559
  • 22 SepLNewport County 1535
  • 19 SepLSalford City 1566

Walsall

6th in League Two · 15 pts from 9

  • 13 OctWFulham U21 1469
  • 10 OctDFleetwood Town 1660
  • 26 SepDTranmere 1656
  • 22 SepLStevenage 1467
  • 19 SepWPort Vale 1585

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Swindon Town11 /1055.9<1%1%17%18th
Walsall15 /965.21%16%1%7th
Swindon Town
Walsall

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

C. Ripley
C. Ripley

Swindon Town · +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1637

S. Sprangler
S. Sprangler

Walsall · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1676

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Scott Holloway Ian

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Lee Grant

Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Swindon Town: balanced profile (how Scott Holloway Ian plays) · Walsall: direct (how Lee Grant plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.