League Two · Regular Season - 14
Swindon Town vs Rotherham
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · County Ground, Swindon
Swindon Town host Rotherham on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Swindon Town 36%, draw 29%, Rotherham 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Swindon Town €199K, Rotherham €314K.
- Home advantage makes Swindon Town the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Rotherham's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Swindon Town goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Swindon Town 1582 · Rotherham 1642
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Swindon Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1635
Rotherham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1657
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Swindon Town
18th in League Two · 12 pts from 11
- 17 OctDWalsall England League Two1557
- 10 OctLCrewe England League Two1534
- 3 OctLRochdale England League Two1542
- 26 SepDAccrington ST England League Two1559
- 22 SepLNewport County England EFL Trophy1535
Rotherham
23rd in League Two · 10 pts from 11
- 17 OctLFleetwood Town England League Two1647
- 10 OctLGillingham England League Two1671
- 6 OctLBradford England EFL Trophy1644
- 3 OctLExeter City England League Two1657
- 26 SepDCrewe England League Two1675
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 12 /11 | 55.5 | 0% | 2% | 21% | 21st |
| Rotherham | 10 /11 | 59.1 | <1% | 5% | 10% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Swindon Town: balanced profile (how Scott Holloway Ian plays) · Rotherham: direct (how Alex Bruce plays)