League Two · Regular Season - 15
Swindon Town vs Grimsby
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · County Ground, Swindon
Swindon Town host Grimsby on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Swindon Town 37%, draw 29%, Grimsby 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Swindon Town €220K, Grimsby €285K.
- Home advantage makes Swindon Town the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Swindon Town goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Swindon Town 1610 · Grimsby 1666
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Swindon Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1709
Grimsby · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1817
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Swindon Town
14th in League Two · 16 pts from 13
- 24 OctDBristol Rovers England League Two1612
- 20 OctWBarnet England League Two1518
- 17 OctDWalsall England League Two1557
- 10 OctLCrewe England League Two1534
- 3 OctLRochdale England League Two1542
Grimsby
11th in League Two · 17 pts from 13
- 24 OctWGillingham England League Two1625
- 20 OctDRochdale England League Two1626
- 17 OctLNorthampton England League Two1653
- 10 OctLPort Vale England League Two1678
- 6 OctDBurton Albion England EFL Trophy1468
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 16 /13 | 58.1 | 0% | 3% | 14% | 21st |
| Grimsby | 17 /13 | 62.6 | <1% | 11% | 4% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Swindon Town: balanced profile (how Scott Holloway Ian plays) · Grimsby: balanced profile (how D. Artell plays)