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League Two · Regular Season - 10

Swindon Town 0–1 Crewe

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · County Ground, Swindon

Swindon Town crestSwindon TownTeam 1510
0–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Crewe crestCreweTeam 1651

Match story

Swindon Town · draw · Crewe

Before kick-off: 30% · 29% · 41%

Live chances: Swindon Town 0%, draw 1%, Crewe 99% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 29%, Crewe 41%2' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 29%, Crewe 41%3' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 30%, Crewe 41%4' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 30%, Crewe 40%5' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 30%, Crewe 40%6' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 30%, Crewe 40%7' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 30%, Crewe 40%8' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 30%, Crewe 40%9' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 30%, Crewe 40%10' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 31%, Crewe 40%11' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 31%, Crewe 40%12' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 31%, Crewe 40%13' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 31%, Crewe 39%14' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 30%, draw 31%, Crewe 39%15' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 31%, Crewe 39%16' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 32%, Crewe 39%17' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 32%, Crewe 39%18' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 32%, Crewe 39%19' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 32%, Crewe 39%20' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 32%, Crewe 38%21' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 33%, Crewe 38%22' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 33%, Crewe 38%23' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 33%, Crewe 38%24' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 33%, Crewe 38%25' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 33%, Crewe 38%26' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 34%, Crewe 38%27' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 34%, Crewe 37%28' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 34%, Crewe 37%29' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 34%, Crewe 37%30' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 29%, draw 35%, Crewe 37%32' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 35%, Crewe 37%34' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 36%, Crewe 36%35' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 36%, Crewe 36%36' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 36%, Crewe 36%37' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 36%, Crewe 36%38' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 37%, Crewe 35%39' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 37%, Crewe 35%40' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 28%, draw 37%, Crewe 35%41' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 27%, draw 38%, Crewe 35%42' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 27%, draw 38%, Crewe 35%43' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 27%, draw 38%, Crewe 34%44' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 27%, draw 39%, Crewe 34%45+1' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 27%, draw 40%, Crewe 34%HT · 0–0 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 41%, Crewe 33%47' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 41%, Crewe 33%48' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 41%, Crewe 33%49' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 42%, Crewe 32%50' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 26%, draw 42%, Crewe 32%51' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 43%, Crewe 32%52' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 44%, Crewe 31%53' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 44%, Crewe 31%54' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 25%, draw 45%, Crewe 31%55' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 24%, draw 45%, Crewe 30%56' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 24%, draw 46%, Crewe 30%57' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 24%, draw 47%, Crewe 29%58' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 24%, draw 47%, Crewe 29%59' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 23%, draw 48%, Crewe 29%60' · 0–0 · Swindon Town 23%, draw 49%, Crewe 28%61' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 6%, draw 21%, Crewe 73%62' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 5%, draw 21%, Crewe 74%63' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 5%, draw 21%, Crewe 74%64' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 5%, draw 21%, Crewe 74%65' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 5%, draw 20%, Crewe 75%66' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 5%, draw 20%, Crewe 75%67' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 4%, draw 20%, Crewe 76%68' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 4%, draw 20%, Crewe 76%69' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 4%, draw 19%, Crewe 77%70' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 4%, draw 19%, Crewe 77%71' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 4%, draw 19%, Crewe 78%72' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 3%, draw 19%, Crewe 78%73' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 3%, draw 18%, Crewe 79%74' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 3%, draw 18%, Crewe 79%75' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 3%, draw 18%, Crewe 80%76' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 3%, draw 17%, Crewe 80%77' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 2%, draw 17%, Crewe 81%78' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 2%, draw 16%, Crewe 81%79' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 2%, draw 16%, Crewe 82%80' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 2%, draw 15%, Crewe 83%81' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 2%, draw 15%, Crewe 84%82' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 2%, draw 14%, Crewe 84%83' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 1%, draw 14%, Crewe 85%84' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 1%, draw 13%, Crewe 86%85' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 1%, draw 12%, Crewe 87%86' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 1%, draw 12%, Crewe 87%87' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 1%, draw 11%, Crewe 88%88' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 1%, draw 10%, Crewe 89%89' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 1%, draw 9%, Crewe 90%90' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 0%, draw 8%, Crewe 91%90+1' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 0%, draw 7%, Crewe 93%90+2' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 0%, draw 6%, Crewe 94%90+3' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 0%, draw 5%, Crewe 95%90+4' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 0%, draw 4%, Crewe 96%90+5' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 0%, draw 2%, Crewe 98%90+6' · 0–1 · Swindon Town 0%, draw 1%, Crewe 99%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 1% · 99%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Crewe 41% to win: they did.

  1. 14'Swindon Town:Ollie Clarke 1627 −10
  2. 59'Crewe:Matúš Holíček 1691 +9* for Joe White 1712 +31
  3. 59'Crewe:Conor Thomas 1488 +20 for Joel Tabiner 1684 +12
  4. 59'Crewe:Calum·Agius 1670 −1* for Adrien thibaut 1594 +15
  5. 60'Crewe:Jordan Gibson 1794 +34 assist Josh March 1750 +43
  6. 63'Swindon Town:Joe Snowdon 1627 −9* for Tom Nichols 1583 −5
  7. 64'Swindon Town:Louis Millard 1423 0 for antwoine hackford 1557 0
  8. 64'Swindon Town:Matthew Virtue-Thick 1603 −10* for Anthony Munda 1126 0
  9. 64'Crewe:Matúš Holíček 1691 +9*
  10. 73'Swindon Town:Daniel Butterworth 1587 −1 for Ollie Clarke 1627 −10
  11. 83'Crewe:Charlie McNeill 1558 +2 for Jordan Gibson 1794 +34
  12. 90+6'Swindon Town:Connor Ripley 1637 −7

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-2-3-1
GC. Ripley1637−7
DM. Clark1679−17*
DS. Negru1608−9
DS. Inwood1350−8*
DD. Butler1615−7
MA. Munda11260
MJ. Thomson13820
MO. Clarke1627−10
FT. Nichols1583−5
FA. Drinan1711−12
FA. Hackford15570
CIan Holloway1595−4
GT. Booth1740+16
DL. Billington1760+43
DL. Offord1901+24
DJ. Stephenson1934+7
DKyle Ure1413+34
MO. Lunt1669+20
MJ. White1712+31
MJ. March1750+43
MJ. Tabiner1684+12
MJ. Gibson1794+34
FA. Thibaut1594+15
CLee Bell1791+26
Before kick-off: 30% · 29% · 41%(Swindon Town · draw · Crewe)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–1 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Swindon Town €191K, Crewe €285K.
  • Swindon Town's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.6 over 180 days.
  • Crewe were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Swindon Town

13th in League Two · 11 pts from 9

  • 3 OctLRochdale 1542
  • 26 SepDAccrington ST 1559
  • 22 SepLNewport County 1535
  • 19 SepLSalford City 1566
  • 15 SepLCrystal Palace U21 1508

Crewe

3rd in League Two · 15 pts from 9

  • 6 OctDBlackpool 1568
  • 3 OctWBristol Rovers 1647
  • 26 SepDRotherham 1654
  • 22 SepWAston Villa U21 1536
  • 19 SepDShrewsbury 1694

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Swindon Town11 /957.5<1%3%14%16th
Crewe15 /971.99%47%<1%2nd
Swindon Town
Crewe

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

C. Ripley
C. Ripley

Swindon Town · +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1644

T. Booth
T. Booth

Crewe · +0.7 (Average) · Elo 1724

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Scott Holloway Ian

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Lee Bell

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Swindon Town: balanced profile (how Scott Holloway Ian plays) · Crewe: balanced profile (how Lee Bell plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.