Bundesliga · Regular Season - 8
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
SV Elversberg host FSV Mainz 05 on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: SV Elversberg 27%, draw 28%, FSV Mainz 05 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: SV Elversberg €2.5M, FSV Mainz 05 €6.4M.
- Style contrast in discipline (Bundesliga): SV Elversberg rank #2 of 18, FSV Mainz 05 #18.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. SV Elversberg goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: SV Elversberg 1904 · FSV Mainz 05 2072
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
SV Elversberg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1987
FSV Mainz 05 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2207
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SV Elversberg
6th in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 6
- 17 OctWFC Augsburg Bundesliga1910
- 10 OctLUnion Berlin Bundesliga1922
- 20 SepDFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga1907
- 13 SepLBayern München Bundesliga1931
- 5 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga1914
FSV Mainz 05
5th in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 6
- 17 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2089
- 10 OctLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2086
- 19 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2076
- 12 SepLEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2094
- 6 SepWHamburger SV Bundesliga2056
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg | 10 /6 | 37.4 | 0% | <1% | 23% | 15th |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 10 /6 | 47.2 | 0% | 6% | 2% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SV Elversberg: balanced profile (how Vincent Wagner plays) · FSV Mainz 05: balanced profile (how Urs Fischer plays)