2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt
SV Darmstadt 98 host FC St. Pauli on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: SV Darmstadt 98 38%, draw 29%, FC St. Pauli 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: SV Darmstadt 98 €1.2M, FC St. Pauli €2.6M.
- Home advantage makes SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. SV Darmstadt 98 goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: SV Darmstadt 98 1763 · FC St. Pauli 1826
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
SV Darmstadt 98 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1791
FC St. Pauli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1602
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SV Darmstadt 98
17th in 2. Bundesliga · 7 pts from 8
- 18 OctLKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1801
- 10 OctWEnergie Cottbus Germany 2 Bundesliga1773
- 18 SepLVfL Wolfsburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1762
- 11 SepWArminia Bielefeld Germany 2 Bundesliga1751
- 5 SepL1. FC Kaiserslautern Germany 2 Bundesliga1778
FC St. Pauli
7th in 2. Bundesliga · 11 pts from 8
- 17 OctDHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1846
- 11 OctWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1823
- 20 SepDEnergie Cottbus Germany 2 Bundesliga1822
- 12 SepWVfL Wolfsburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1790
- 4 SepDArminia Bielefeld Germany 2 Bundesliga1821
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 7 /8 | 40.8 | <1% | 2% | 26% | 16th |
| FC St. Pauli | 11 /8 | 48.9 | 2% | 22% | 3% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SV Darmstadt 98: balanced profile (how Florian Kohfeldt plays) · FC St. Pauli: balanced profile (how Marcel Rapp plays)