Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
Supra du Quebec 3–0 York United
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Supra du QuebecTeam 1506
York UnitedTeam 1448Match story
Supra du Quebec · draw · York UnitedBefore kick-off: 47% · 26% · 27%
Last reading, 90+1': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Kembo·Kibato 53' (og)
- Sean Rea 62'
- Noah Lauren Trudel dos Santos 87'
We gave Supra du Quebec 47% to win: they did.
- 24'Tomasz Skublak
York United:Tomasz Skublak - 44'Max Ferrari 1529 −5
York United:Max Ferrari 1529 −5 - Sean Rea 1656 +3945+1'
Supra du Quebec:Sean Rea 1656 +39 - Kembo·Kibato 1403 0 (own goal)53'
Supra du Quebec:Kembo·Kibato 1403 0 (own goal) - 54'Shola Jimoh 1410 0 for David Peraza 1293 −8*
York United:Shola Jimoh 1410 0 for David Peraza 1293 −8* - Sean Rea 1656 +39 assist Alessandro Simone Biello 1637 +4262'
Supra du Quebec:Sean Rea 1656 +39 assist Alessandro Simone Biello 1637 +42 - Omar El Kalkouli 1276 +9 for David Choiniere 1456 +9*67'
Supra du Quebec:Omar El Kalkouli 1276 +9 for David Choiniere 1456 +9* - S. Mlah 1329 +8 for Aboubacar Sissoko 1495 +1467'
Supra du Quebec:S. Mlah 1329 +8 for Aboubacar Sissoko 1495 +14 - 67'Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke 1339 0 for Beni Badibanga 1436 −2
York United:Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke 1339 0 for Beni Badibanga 1436 −2 - Noah Lauren Trudel dos Santos 1232 +13 for Ibrahim Conde 1413 +2579'
Supra du Quebec:Noah Lauren Trudel dos Santos 1232 +13 for Ibrahim Conde 1413 +25 - Noah Lauren Trudel dos Santos 1232 +13 assist Loic Adrien Kwemi 1577 +5087'
Supra du Quebec:Noah Lauren Trudel dos Santos 1232 +13 assist Loic Adrien Kwemi 1577 +50
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 47% · 26% · 27%(Supra du Quebec · draw · York United)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–0 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Supra du Quebec €230K, York United €176K.
- Home advantage made Supra du Quebec the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Supra du Quebec
5th in Canadian Premier League · 32 pts from 26
- 10 OctDVancouver FC Canada Premier League1530
- 7 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1450
- 4 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1452
- 26 SepLCavalry FC Canada Premier League1437
- 20 SepWAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1352
York United
7th in Canadian Premier League · 27 pts from 26
- 12 OctLForge Canada Premier League1514
- 7 OctLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1524
- 3 OctWCavalry FC Canada Premier League1513
- 27 SepLPacific FC Canada Premier League1480
- 24 SepDVancouver FC Canada Premier League1490
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supra du Quebec | 32 /26 | 34.7 | 0% | 29% | 16% | 5th |
| York United | 27 /26 | 29.6 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Supra du Quebec · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1617

York United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1573
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.