Canadian Premier League · Semi-finals
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · CEPSUM Stadium
Supra du Quebec host Cavalry FC on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Canadian Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Supra du Quebec 39%, draw 29%, Cavalry FC 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Supra du Quebec €222K, Cavalry FC €205K.
- Home advantage makes Supra du Quebec the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Canadian Premier League: S. Rea is the highest-rated midfielder (1704).
- Supra du Quebec are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Supra du Quebec goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Supra du Quebec 1568 · Cavalry FC 1592
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Supra du Quebec · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1593
Cavalry FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1641
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Supra du Quebec
4th in Canadian Premier League · 38 pts from 28
- 25 OctWHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1579
- 16 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1547
- 10 OctDVancouver FC Canada Premier League1530
- 7 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1450
- 4 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1452
Cavalry FC
1st in Canadian Premier League · 60 pts from 28
- 25 OctWVancouver FC Canada Premier League1612
- 17 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1570
- 12 OctDHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1616
- 3 OctLYork United Canada Premier League1560
- 30 SepLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1656
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supra du Quebec | 38 /28 | 40.6 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 4th |
| Cavalry FC | 60 /28 | 62.8 | 78% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.