Virsliga · Regular Season - 34
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Jana Skredela stadions, Riga
Super Nova host Rīgas FS on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Virsliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Super Nova 18%, draw 24%, Rīgas FS 57%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Super Nova €162K, Rīgas FS €446K.
- Rīgas FS are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Super Nova goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–07%
- 0–36%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Super Nova 1288 · Rīgas FS 1630
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Rīgas FS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1507
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Super Nova
6th in Virsliga · 38 pts from 33
- 18 OctLRiga Latvia Virsliga1289
- 15 OctLRīgas FS Latvia Virsliga1255
- 15 SepLRiga Latvia Virsliga1299
- 10 SepWTukums Latvia Virsliga1262
- 29 AugDAuda Latvia Virsliga1285
Rīgas FS
1st in Virsliga · 80 pts from 32
- 15 OctWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1641
- 11 OctWFS Jelgava Latvia Virsliga1643
- 20 SepDAuda Latvia Virsliga1605
- 13 SepWBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1554
- 7 SepDFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1626
Season outlook
From the Virsliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 38 /33 | 41.2 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 6th |
| Rīgas FS | 80 /32 | 87.8 | 74% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –