EFL Cup · Round of 16
Sunderland vs Brentford
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland
SunderlandTeam 2157BrentfordTeam 2331Sunderland host Brentford on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (EFL Cup); on the confirmed line-ups our model gives Sunderland 19%, draw 25%, Brentford 56%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Sunderland €11.7M, Brentford €23.9M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Premier League): Sunderland rank #4 of 20, Brentford #18.
Prediction — confirmed line-ups
Provisional, from both squads' Elo: 31% · 29% · 40%
Most likely scores
On the confirmed line-ups. Sunderland goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–210%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–07%
- 0–36%
- Other scores45%
Confirmed line-ups
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sunderland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 2249
Brentford · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2343
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sunderland
20th in Premier League · 5 pts from 8
- 25 OctDLeeds Premier League2220
- 22 OctDLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2058
- 18 OctLBournemouth Premier League2168
- 15 OctWTorreense UEFA Europa League2042
- 10 OctLBrighton Premier League2247
Brentford
6th in Premier League · 11 pts from 8
- 25 OctDHull City Premier League2354
- 17 OctLLiverpool Premier League2364
- 10 OctDAston Villa Premier League2340
- 18 SepWChelsea Premier League2306
- 15 SepWReading England League Cup2236
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sunderland: balanced profile (how R. Le Bris plays) · Brentford: balanced profile (how Keith Andrews plays)