A Lyga · Regular Season - 33
Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 15:45 UTC · Marijampole Football Arena, Marijampole
Suduva MarijampoleTeam 1362Kauno ŽalgirisTeam 1547We gave Kauno Žalgiris 44% to win: they did.
- M. Chajia –22'Suduva Marijampole:M. Chajia –
- 51'V. Slivka –Kauno Žalgiris:V. Slivka –
- S. Lawson –55'Suduva Marijampole:S. Lawson –
- 58'F. Ourega – for M. Burba –Kauno Žalgiris:F. Ourega – for M. Burba –
- 90+3'Kauno Žalgiris:
- 90+4'Kauno Žalgiris:
Live Elo changes aren't available for this competition.
Before kick-off (provisional): 28% · 28% · 44%(Suduva Marijampole · draw · Kauno Žalgiris)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Suduva Marijampole €197K, Kauno Žalgiris €345K.
- I. Plūkas, E. Stockunas, A. Živanović, S. Lawson, S. M. Sanokho, I. Seck, M. Mikulenas, F. Steponavičius, Y. Omori and H. Uzochukwu (Suduva Marijampole) had not played for over 90 days.
- Suduva Marijampole were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Suduva Marijampole
3rd in A Lyga · 50 pts from 29
- 29 MayWFK Trakai Lithuania A Lyga1363
- 23 MayWKauno Žalgiris Lithuania A Lyga1324
- 16 MayDHegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga1311
- 10 MayDFK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga1308
- 6 MayDTransINVEST Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga1310
Kauno Žalgiris
1st in A Lyga · 51 pts from 28
- 15 OctLBrighton UEFA Conference League1566
- 27 AugWBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League1519
- 20 AugLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League1518
- 11 AugLDinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League1515
- 4 AugLDinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League1527
Season outlook
From the A Lyga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 50 /29 | 54.2 | 16% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 51 /28 | 57.4 | 78% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kauno Žalgiris · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1546
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –