3. Liga · Regular Season - 14
Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · WIRmachenDRUCK Arena, Aspach
Stuttgart II host FC Ingolstadt 04 on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (3. Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Stuttgart II 39%, draw 29%, FC Ingolstadt 04 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Stuttgart II €382K, FC Ingolstadt 04 €412K.
- Home advantage makes Stuttgart II the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in chance creation (3. Liga): Stuttgart II rank #19 of 20, FC Ingolstadt 04 #3.
- Only 2 of Stuttgart II's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Stuttgart II goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 2–28%
- 1–27%
- 1–06%
- 2–05%
- Other scores53%
Team Elo: Stuttgart II 1628 · FC Ingolstadt 04 1680
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Stuttgart II · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1618
FC Ingolstadt 04 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 1717
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Stuttgart II
12th in 3. Liga · 18 pts from 13
- 8 NovWVerl Germany 3 Liga1624
- 31 OctDMSV Duisburg Germany 3 Liga1601
- 24 OctLAlemannia Aachen Germany 3 Liga1620
- 16 OctWFortuna Köln Germany 3 Liga1562
- 13 OctWHoffenheim II Germany 3 Liga1553
FC Ingolstadt 04
5th in 3. Liga · 21 pts from 13
- 7 NovWFortuna Düsseldorf Germany 3 Liga1647
- 31 OctDHavelse Germany 3 Liga1644
- 24 OctWMSV Duisburg Germany 3 Liga1659
- 17 OctWRot-Weiß Essen Germany 3 Liga1656
- 14 OctWWaldhof Mannheim Germany 3 Liga1617
Season outlook
From the 3. Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart II | 18 /13 | 55.4 | 1% | 10% | <1% | 9th |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 21 /13 | 62.1 | 6% | 40% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Stuttgart II: dribble-heavy (how Nico Willig plays) · FC Ingolstadt 04: balanced profile (how Achim Beierlorzer plays)