Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
Sturm Graz vs Ried
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz host Ried on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sturm Graz 63%, draw 22%, Ried 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sturm Graz €1.7M, Ried €389K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Bundesliga): Sturm Graz rank #9 of 12, Ried #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sturm Graz goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Sturm Graz 1866 · Ried 1604
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sturm Graz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1951
Ried · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1661
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sturm Graz
4th in Bundesliga · 17 pts from 9
- 18 OctWGrazer AK Austrian Bundesliga1869
- 15 OctLBournemouth UEFA Europa League1822
- 10 OctWAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1851
- 20 SepLRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1835
- 16 SepDRennes UEFA Europa League1832
Ried
5th in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 9
- 17 OctWAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1580
- 10 OctWWSG Wattens Austrian Bundesliga1563
- 20 SepWWolfsberger AC Austrian Bundesliga1530
- 11 SepDRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1563
- 30 AugLTSV Hartberg Austrian Bundesliga1558
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 17 /9 | 40.4 | 7% | 93% | 0% | 4th |
| Ried | 14 /9 | 28.4 | 0% | 4% | 7% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sturm Graz: balanced profile (how Fabio Ingolitsch plays) · Ried: balanced profile (how Mario Despotović plays)