Bundesliga · Regular Season - 12
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz host Red Bull Salzburg on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sturm Graz 37%, draw 29%, Red Bull Salzburg 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sturm Graz €2.0M, Red Bull Salzburg €2.4M.
- Home advantage makes Sturm Graz the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Bundesliga: K. Boma is the highest-rated defender (2030).
- Style contrast in discipline (Bundesliga): Sturm Graz rank #9 of 12, Red Bull Salzburg #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sturm Graz goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Sturm Graz 1878 · Red Bull Salzburg 1931
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sturm Graz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1960
Red Bull Salzburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1983
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sturm Graz
4th in Bundesliga · 17 pts from 9
- 22 OctWMarseille UEFA Europa League1858
- 18 OctWGrazer AK Austrian Bundesliga1869
- 15 OctLBournemouth UEFA Europa League1822
- 10 OctWAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1851
- 20 SepLRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1835
Red Bull Salzburg
2nd in Bundesliga · 21 pts from 9
- 22 OctDCelje UEFA Europa League1929
- 18 OctWSCR Altach Austrian Bundesliga1934
- 15 OctLAC Milan UEFA Europa League1955
- 10 OctDGrazer AK Austrian Bundesliga1939
- 20 SepWSturm Graz Austrian Bundesliga1910
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 17 /9 | 40.4 | 7% | 93% | 0% | 4th |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 21 /9 | 45.1 | 34% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sturm Graz: balanced profile (how Fabio Ingolitsch plays) · Red Bull Salzburg: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Danny Röhl plays)