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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7

Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint Germain

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg crestStrasbourgTeam 1966
1–3
Full time
HT 1–0
Paris Saint Germain crestParis Saint GermainTeam 2491

Match story

Strasbourg · draw · Paris Saint Germain

Before kick-off: 11% · 17% · 73%

Live chances: Strasbourg 0%, draw 0%, Paris Saint Germain 100% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 17%, Paris Saint Germain 72%3' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 17%, Paris Saint Germain 72%4' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 17%, Paris Saint Germain 72%5' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 17%, Paris Saint Germain 72%6' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 72%7' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 71%8' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 71%9' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 71%10' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 71%11' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 70%12' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 70%14' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 12%, draw 19%, Paris Saint Germain 70%15' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 12%, draw 19%, Paris Saint Germain 69%16' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 12%, draw 19%, Paris Saint Germain 69%17' · 0–0 · Strasbourg 12%, draw 19%, Paris Saint Germain 69%18' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 29%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 46%19' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 30%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 46%20' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 30%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 45%21' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 30%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 45%22' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 31%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 44%23' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 31%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 44%24' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 31%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 43%25' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 32%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 43%26' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 32%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 42%27' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 32%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 42%28' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 32%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 42%29' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 33%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 41%30' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 33%, draw 26%, Paris Saint Germain 41%31' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 33%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 40%32' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 34%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 39%33' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 34%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 39%34' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 35%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 38%35' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 35%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 38%36' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 35%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 37%37' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 36%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 37%38' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 36%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 36%39' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 36%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 36%40' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 37%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 35%41' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 37%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 35%42' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 38%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 34%43' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 38%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 34%44' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 39%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 33%45' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 39%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 32%45+1' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 39%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 32%HT · 1–0 · Strasbourg 41%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 30%46' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 41%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 30%47' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 41%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 30%48' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 42%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 29%49' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 42%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 28%50' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 43%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 28%51' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 43%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 27%52' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 44%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 26%53' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 45%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 25%54' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 45%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 25%55' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 46%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 24%56' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 47%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 23%57' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 47%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 22%58' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 48%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 22%59' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 49%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 21%60' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 50%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 20%61' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 50%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 19%62' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 51%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 19%63' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 52%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 18%64' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 53%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 17%65' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 53%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 17%66' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 54%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 16%67' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 55%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 15%68' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 56%, draw 30%, Paris Saint Germain 15%69' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 57%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 14%70' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 58%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 13%71' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 58%, draw 29%, Paris Saint Germain 13%73' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 60%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 11%74' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 61%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 11%75' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 62%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 10%76' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 63%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 9%77' · 1–0 · Strasbourg 65%, draw 27%, Paris Saint Germain 9%77' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 13%, draw 52%, Paris Saint Germain 35%78' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 13%, draw 54%, Paris Saint Germain 34%79' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 12%, draw 55%, Paris Saint Germain 32%80' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 12%, draw 57%, Paris Saint Germain 31%81' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 12%, draw 58%, Paris Saint Germain 30%82' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 60%, Paris Saint Germain 29%83' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 11%, draw 62%, Paris Saint Germain 27%84' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 10%, draw 64%, Paris Saint Germain 26%85' · 1–1 · Strasbourg 10%, draw 66%, Paris Saint Germain 24%86' · 1–2 · Strasbourg 1%, draw 10%, Paris Saint Germain 89%87' · 1–2 · Strasbourg 1%, draw 10%, Paris Saint Germain 90%88' · 1–2 · Strasbourg 1%, draw 9%, Paris Saint Germain 90%89' · 1–2 · Strasbourg 0%, draw 8%, Paris Saint Germain 91%90' · 1–2 · Strasbourg 0%, draw 8%, Paris Saint Germain 92%90+2' · 1–2 · Strasbourg 0%, draw 6%, Paris Saint Germain 94%90+3' · 1–3 · Strasbourg 0%, draw 0%, Paris Saint Germain 100%90+5' · 1–3 · Strasbourg 0%, draw 0%, Paris Saint Germain 100%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Paris Saint Germain 73% to win: they did.

  1. 17'Strasbourg:Giovanni Reyna 2098 0 assist Gessime Yassine 2110 0
  2. 53'Paris Saint Germain:Nuno Mendes 2588 +2 for Lucas Digne 2331 +1
  3. 54'Paris Saint Germain:Désiré Doue 2565 +6 for Dro Fernández 2180 +22
  4. 54'Paris Saint Germain:Vitinha 2598 +4 for Lucas Beraldo 2381 +5
  5. 60'Strasbourg:Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 1814 0 for Fábio Baldé 1643 0
  6. 63'Paris Saint Germain:Achraf Hakimi 2502 +1 for João Neves 2568 +4
  7. 63'Paris Saint Germain:Ousmane Dembélé 2592 +2 for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 2466 +5
  8. 72'Paris Saint Germain:Ousmane Dembélé 2592 +2 (penalty missed)
  9. 75'Strasbourg:Samir El-Mourabet 2111 0 for Pape Demba Diop 1987 0
  10. 76'Strasbourg:Conrad Harder 1913 0
  11. 77'Paris Saint Germain:Ilya Zabarnyi 2390 +24 assist Ousmane Dembélé 2592 +2
  12. 78'Strasbourg:Dario Essugo 1810 0
  13. 83'Strasbourg:Yaya Dieme for Gessime Yassine 2110 0
  14. 83'Strasbourg:Jacobo Ortega 1904 0 for Conrad Harder 1913 0
  15. 85'Paris Saint Germain:Ousmane Dembélé 2592 +2
  16. 90+3'Paris Saint Germain:Désiré Doue 2565 +6 assist Ferrán Torres 2605 +12

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations
GM. Safonov2457+20
DW. Zaïre-Emery2520+6
DI. Zabarnyi2390+24
DL. Hernández2352+7
DL. Digne2331+1
MPedro Fernández2180+22
MBeraldo2381+5
MJoão Neves2568+4
FM. Akliouche2375+9
FFerran Torres2605+12
FK. Kvaratskhelia2466+5
CLuis Enrique2523+11
Before kick-off: 11% · 17% · 73%(Strasbourg · draw · Paris Saint Germain)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 0–2 (10%); the result 1–3 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Strasbourg €7.4M, Paris Saint Germain €44.4M.
  • Strasbourg were without 1 expected starter: I. Doukouré (2189).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 1 matchday 7: 471 points.
  • Ligue 1: M. Safonov was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2436).
  • Paris Saint Germain's expected eleven was in form: average +2.8 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Strasbourg

12th in Ligue 1 · 7 pts from 6

  • 11 OctLNice 1982
  • 19 SepLParis FC 2086
  • 12 SepDMonaco 2074
  • 6 SepWEstac Troyes 2032
  • 29 AugWLens 1998

Paris Saint Germain

6th in Ligue 1 · 11 pts from 6

  • 14 OctWManchester City 2466
  • 10 OctWLe Mans 2381
  • 20 SepWMarseille 2464
  • 13 SepWStade Brestois 29 2476
  • 9 SepWSlovan Bratislava 2407

Season outlook

From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Strasbourg7 /647.90%5%1%9th
Paris Saint Germain11 /680.196%100%0%1st
Strasbourg
Paris Saint Germain

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Ligue 1

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

J. Mitchell
J. Mitchell

Strasbourg · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2072

João Neves
João Neves

Paris Saint Germain · +4.8 (Good) · Elo 2564

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Hugo Filipe Carvalho Oliveira

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Luis Enrique

Coach DNA: possession-based · creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Strasbourg: balanced profile (how Hugo Filipe Carvalho Oliveira plays) · Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays)