League One · Regular Season - 10
Stockport County 3–1 Barnsley
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Edgeley Park, Stockport
Stockport CountyTeam 1815BarnsleyTeam 1695- Kyle Wootton 61', 73'
- Mikael Mandron 90'
- Patrick Kelly 13'
We gave Stockport County 52% to win: they did.
- 13'Patrick Kelly –Barnsley:Patrick Kelly –
- 25'Cameron McGeehan –Barnsley:Cameron McGeehan –
- Lewis Fiorini – for Lewis Bate –45'Stockport County:Lewis Fiorini – for Lewis Bate –
- Kyle Wootton – assist Oliver Norwood –61'Stockport County:Kyle Wootton – assist Oliver Norwood –
- 63'Jubril Okedina – for Tyrese Noslin –Barnsley:Jubril Okedina – for Tyrese Noslin –
- Harry Wood –63'Stockport County:Harry Wood –
- Jason Adigun – for Harry Wood –66'Stockport County:Jason Adigun – for Harry Wood –
- 70'S. Gale – for Connor O'Riordan –Barnsley:S. Gale – for Connor O'Riordan –
- 70'Jonathan Bland – for Royce BrownlieBarnsley:Jonathan Bland – for Royce Brownlie
- Kyle Wootton – assist Jason Adigun –73'Stockport County:Kyle Wootton – assist Jason Adigun –
- 82'O'Rian Andrew Reid for Vimal Yoganathan –Barnsley:O'Rian Andrew Reid for Vimal Yoganathan –
- 83'Jack Shepherd –Barnsley:Jack Shepherd –
- Josh Cogley – for Ryan Glover –86'Stockport County:Josh Cogley – for Ryan Glover –
- Mikael Mandron – for Jack Diamond –86'Stockport County:Mikael Mandron – for Jack Diamond –
- Mikael Mandron – assist Jason Adigun –90'Stockport County:Mikael Mandron – assist Jason Adigun –
- Mamadou Jobe – for Ben Osborn –90+5'Stockport County:Mamadou Jobe – for Ben Osborn –
Before kick-off (provisional): 52% · 26% · 22%(Stockport County · draw · Barnsley)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–1 had 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Stockport County €735K, Barnsley €435K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of League One matchday 10: 120 points.
- Stockport County's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
- Barnsley's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
- Only 1 of Barnsley's expected starters was past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Stockport County
5th in League One · 13 pts from 8
- 26 SepWPeterborough England League One1825
- 19 SepDSheffield Wednesday England League One1798
- 12 SepLLeicester England League One1816
- 5 SepWWigan England League One1773
- 2 SepLLuton England League One1783
Barnsley
18th in League One · 8 pts from 7
- 6 OctLFleetwood Town England EFL Trophy1473
- 22 SepLLeeds United U21 England EFL Trophy1606
- 19 SepDLeicester England League One1707
- 15 SepDPeterborough England League Cup1691
- 12 SepLPlymouth England League One1717
Season outlook
From the League One simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County | 13 /8 | 68.6 | 6% | 33% | 1% | 2nd |
| Barnsley | 8 /7 | 51.9 | <1% | 1% | 35% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Stockport County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.9 (Elite) · Elo 1859
Barnsley · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1727
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Stockport County: balanced profile (how Jimmy McNulty plays) · Barnsley: balanced profile (how Daniel Stendel plays)