League One · Regular Season - 12
Stevenage vs Plymouth
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Broadhall Way, Stevenage
Stevenage host Plymouth on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Stevenage 28%, draw 28%, Plymouth 44%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Stevenage €360K, Plymouth €792K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of League One matchday 12: 197 points.
- League One: A. Pepple is the highest-rated forward (2023).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Stevenage goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Stevenage 1721 · Plymouth 1918
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Stevenage · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1780
Plymouth · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1958
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Stevenage
12th in League One · 12 pts from 9
- 17 OctLBradford England League One1740
- 10 OctWWigan England League One1724
- 6 OctWLeicester England EFL Trophy1631
- 22 SepWWalsall England EFL Trophy1676
- 19 SepLLeyton Orient England League One1711
Plymouth
4th in League One · 19 pts from 11
- 17 OctLHuddersfield England League One1938
- 10 OctWAFC Wimbledon England League One1900
- 6 OctDNewport County England EFL Trophy1747
- 3 OctWLeyton Orient England League One1895
- 26 SepLBurton Albion England League One1916
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 12 /9 | 55.5 | <1% | 1% | 15% | 19th |
| Plymouth | 19 /11 | 77.5 | 30% | 71% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-block · low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Stevenage: direct (how Alexander David Revell plays) · Plymouth: direct (how Tom Cleverley plays)