League One · Regular Season - 13
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Lamex Stadium, Stevenage
Stevenage host Milton Keynes Dons on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Stevenage 36%, draw 29%, Milton Keynes Dons 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Stevenage €360K, Milton Keynes Dons €487K.
- Home advantage makes Stevenage the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in possession (League One): Stevenage rank #21 of 24, Milton Keynes Dons #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Stevenage goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–19%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Stevenage 1721 · Milton Keynes Dons 1807
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Stevenage · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1780
Milton Keynes Dons · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1836
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Stevenage
12th in League One · 12 pts from 9
- 17 OctLBradford England League One1740
- 10 OctWWigan England League One1724
- 6 OctWLeicester England EFL Trophy1631
- 22 SepWWalsall England EFL Trophy1676
- 19 SepLLeyton Orient England League One1711
Milton Keynes Dons
18th in League One · 9 pts from 9
- 17 OctWLuton England League One1797
- 10 OctLReading England League One1803
- 6 OctWBrentford U21 England EFL Trophy1742
- 22 SepWCrawley Town England EFL Trophy1780
- 17 SepDAFC Wimbledon England League One1759
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 12 /9 | 55.5 | <1% | 1% | 15% | 19th |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 9 /9 | 58.1 | <1% | 3% | 8% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Stevenage: direct (how Alexander David Revell plays) · Milton Keynes Dons: possession-based (how Paul Warne plays)