Premier Division · Regular Season - 34
St Patrick's Athl. 1–2 Shelbourne
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Richmond Park, Dublin
St Patrick's Athl.Team 1682ShelbourneTeam 1467- Jamie Lennon 43'
- Sean Moore 49'
- Daniel Kelly 84'
We gave St Patrick's Athl. 58% to win: Shelbourne won.
- Aidan Keena 1635 −21* (penalty missed)15'St Patrick's Athl.:Aidan Keena 1635 −21* (penalty missed)
- Jamie Lennon 1608 −44* assist Barry Baggley 1593 −30*43'St Patrick's Athl.:Jamie Lennon 1608 −44* assist Barry Baggley 1593 −30*
- 49'Sean Moore 1495 +99 assist Daniel Kelly 1604 +51Shelbourne:Sean Moore 1495 +99 assist Daniel Kelly 1604 +51
- Ryan Sheridan 1483 −8* for Kian Leavy 1584 −13*62'St Patrick's Athl.:Ryan Sheridan 1483 −8* for Kian Leavy 1584 −13*
- 66'John Martin 1537 +5 for Ademipo Odubeko 1594 +12Shelbourne:John Martin 1537 +5 for Ademipo Odubeko 1594 +12
- 66'Jonathan Lunney 1519 −3* for Marco Untergrabner 1509 +20Shelbourne:Jonathan Lunney 1519 −3* for Marco Untergrabner 1509 +20
- 71'Sam Bone 1532 −4* for James Norris 1560 +17Shelbourne:Sam Bone 1532 −4* for James Norris 1560 +17
- 72'Alistair Coote 1514 +4 for Jack Henry-Francis 1536 +19Shelbourne:Alistair Coote 1514 +4 for Jack Henry-Francis 1536 +19
- Christopher Forrester 1491 −13* for Barry Baggley 1593 −30*72'St Patrick's Athl.:Christopher Forrester 1491 −13* for Barry Baggley 1593 −30*
- Ryan Edmondson 1625 −10* for Anthony Olusanya 1600 −16*72'St Patrick's Athl.:Ryan Edmondson 1625 −10* for Anthony Olusanya 1600 −16*
- Jason McClelland 1560 −14*80'St Patrick's Athl.:Jason McClelland 1560 −14*
- 81'Daniel Kelly 1604 +51Shelbourne:Daniel Kelly 1604 +51
- Romal Palmer 1614 −9* for Aidan Keena 1635 −21*83'St Patrick's Athl.:Romal Palmer 1614 −9* for Aidan Keena 1635 −21*
- James Brown 1594 −9* for Jason McClelland 1560 −14*83'St Patrick's Athl.:James Brown 1594 −9* for Jason McClelland 1560 −14*
- 84'Daniel Kelly 1604 +51Shelbourne:Daniel Kelly 1604 +51
- 88'Sean Boyd 1460 0 for Sean Moore 1495 +99Shelbourne:Sean Boyd 1460 0 for Sean Moore 1495 +99
- 90'Alistair Coote 1514 +4Shelbourne:Alistair Coote 1514 +4
- 90+4'Eddie Beach 1525 +26Shelbourne:Eddie Beach 1525 +26
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 58% · 25% · 17%(St Patrick's Athl. · draw · Shelbourne)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: St Patrick's Athl. €288K, Shelbourne €223K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier Division): St Patrick's Athl. ranked #1 of 11, Shelbourne #10.
- St Patrick's Athl.'s expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
St Patrick's Athl.
2nd in Premier Division · 59 pts from 32
- 19 SepWSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1613
- 14 SepWDundalk Irish Premier Division1587
- 11 SepWShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1572
- 28 AugLWaterford Irish Premier Division1603
- 21 AugWDrogheda United Irish Premier Division1587
Shelbourne
4th in Premier Division · 43 pts from 33
- 9 OctWSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1499
- 25 SepDGalway United Irish Premier Division1475
- 18 SepWDundalk Irish Premier Division1475
- 14 SepLDrogheda United Irish Premier Division1472
- 11 SepLDerry City Irish Premier Division1512
Season outlook
From the Premier Division simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Patrick's Athl. | 59 /32 | 65.3 | 9% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Shelbourne | 43 /33 | 46.7 | 0% | 28% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
St Patrick's Athl. · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 1664
Shelbourne · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1593
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
St Patrick's Athl.: balanced profile (how Stephen Kenny plays) · Shelbourne: possession-based (how John Russell plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.