Premier Division · Regular Season - 36
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Richmond Park, Dublin
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Premier Division); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: St Patrick's Athl. 43%, draw 28%, Bohemians 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: St Patrick's Athl. €286K, Bohemians €272K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier Division): St Patrick's Athl. rank #1 of 11, Bohemians #9.
- St Patrick's Athl.'s expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. St Patrick's Athl. goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: St Patrick's Athl. 1600 · Bohemians 1581
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
St Patrick's Athl. · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 1608
Bohemians · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1638
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
St Patrick's Athl.
3rd in Premier Division · 59 pts from 33
- 16 OctLShelbourne Irish Premier Division1630
- 19 SepWSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1613
- 14 SepWDundalk Irish Premier Division1587
- 11 SepWShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1572
- 28 AugLWaterford Irish Premier Division1603
Bohemians
2nd in Premier Division · 62 pts from 34
- 16 OctWWaterford Irish Premier Division1558
- 12 OctLShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1579
- 2 OctWDundalk Irish Premier Division1573
- 18 SepWDrogheda United Irish Premier Division1557
- 11 SepWGalway United Irish Premier Division1556
Season outlook
From the Premier Division simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Patrick's Athl. | 59 /33 | 63.4 | 5% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
| Bohemians | 62 /34 | 64.8 | 9% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
St Patrick's Athl.: balanced profile (how Stephen Kenny plays) · Bohemians: balanced profile (how Alan Reynolds plays)