Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 28
St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Citypark, Saint Louis
St. Louis CityTeam 2028Los Angeles GalaxyTeam 1875- Carlo Holse 2', 7', 21'
- Rafael Navarro Leal 45' (pen)
- Lukas MacNaughton 45+7'
- Rafael Navarro Leal 53'
- Robert Taylor 31'
- Klauss 71'
We gave St. Louis City 59% to win: they did.
- Carlo Holse 2125 +14* assist Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21*2'St. Louis City:Carlo Holse 2125 +14* assist Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21*
- Carlo Holse 2125 +14* assist Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21*7'St. Louis City:Carlo Holse 2125 +14* assist Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21*
- 11'Klauss for Kyogo Furuhashi 1945 −12*Los Angeles Galaxy:Klauss for Kyogo Furuhashi 1945 −12*
- Carlo Holse 2125 +14* assist Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*21'St. Louis City:Carlo Holse 2125 +14* assist Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*
- 31'Robert Taylor 1850 −12* assist Erik Thommy 1778 −12*Los Angeles Galaxy:Robert Taylor 1850 −12* assist Erik Thommy 1778 −12*
- Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*39'St. Louis City:Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*
- Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21* (pen.)45'St. Louis City:Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21* (pen.)
- 45'Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole 1847 −8* for Sergi Roberto 1918 −18*Los Angeles Galaxy:Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole 1847 −8* for Sergi Roberto 1918 −18*
- Lukas MacNaughton 1833 +61* assist Alexandru Măţan 1979 +39*45+7'St. Louis City:Lukas MacNaughton 1833 +61* assist Alexandru Măţan 1979 +39*
- Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21* assist Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*53'St. Louis City:Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21* assist Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*
- 60'Joseph Paintsil 1891 −10* for Robert Taylor 1850 −12*Los Angeles Galaxy:Joseph Paintsil 1891 −10* for Robert Taylor 1850 −12*
- 60'Marco Reus 1759 −18* for Pablo Ruiz 1919 −12*Los Angeles Galaxy:Marco Reus 1759 −18* for Pablo Ruiz 1919 −12*
- Conrad Wallem 2035 +4*63'St. Louis City:Conrad Wallem 2035 +4*
- 67'Bernardi Julian Ezequiel Aude 1927 −14*Los Angeles Galaxy:Bernardi Julian Ezequiel Aude 1927 −14*
- 71'Klauss assist Marco Reus 1759 −18*Los Angeles Galaxy:Klauss assist Marco Reus 1759 −18*
- Fallou Fall 1924 −4* for Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*72'St. Louis City:Fallou Fall 1924 −4* for Christopher Durkin 2053 +20*
- 74'Harbor Miller 1867 −9*Los Angeles Galaxy:Harbor Miller 1867 −9*
- 75'Carlos Emiro Garces Torres 1886 −8* for Erik Thommy 1778 −12*Los Angeles Galaxy:Carlos Emiro Garces Torres 1886 −8* for Erik Thommy 1778 −12*
- Simon Becher 1954 −6* for Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21*80'St. Louis City:Simon Becher 1954 −6* for Rafael Navarro Leal 2077 +21*
- Sang-bin Jung 1851 −5* for Carlo Holse 2125 +14*80'St. Louis City:Sang-bin Jung 1851 −5* for Carlo Holse 2125 +14*
- Jaziel Alberto Orozco Landeros 1850 −5* for Conrad Wallem 2035 +4*80'St. Louis City:Jaziel Alberto Orozco Landeros 1850 −5* for Conrad Wallem 2035 +4*
- Damion Downs 1830 −7* for Alexandru Măţan 1979 +39*90+1'St. Louis City:Damion Downs 1830 −7* for Alexandru Măţan 1979 +39*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 59% · 23% · 19%(St. Louis City · draw · Los Angeles Galaxy)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 6–2 had <1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: St. Louis City €2.5M, Los Angeles Galaxy €1.7M.
- Los Angeles Galaxy were without 1 expected starter: H. Lozano (2064).
- Style contrast in possession (MLS): St. Louis City ranked #28 of 30, Los Angeles Galaxy #3.
- St. Louis City's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
- St. Louis City were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
St. Louis City
2nd in MLS · 47 pts from 27
- 30 SepWNew York Red Bulls MLS1996
- 20 SepWToronto FC MLS1946
- 13 SepWMinnesota United FC MLS1942
- 10 SepDPortland Timbers MLS1936
- 6 SepWVancouver Whitecaps MLS1916
Los Angeles Galaxy
9th in MLS · 36 pts from 28
- 27 SepWColorado Rapids MLS1903
- 20 SepWMinnesota United FC MLS1899
- 13 SepDSeattle Sounders MLS1900
- 10 SepLVancouver Whitecaps MLS1873
- 6 SepWNew England Revolution MLS1891
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 47 /27 | 58.3 | 0% | 54% | 0% | 2nd |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 36 /28 | 44.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
St. Louis City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2066
Los Angeles Galaxy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1968
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
St. Louis City: direct (how Yoann Damet plays) · Los Angeles Galaxy: possession-based (how Gregory Dean Vanney plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.