Premiership · Regular Season - 11
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · McDiarmid Park, Perth
ST Johnstone host Motherwell on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Premiership); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: ST Johnstone 39%, draw 29%, Motherwell 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: ST Johnstone €419K, Motherwell €681K.
- Home advantage makes ST Johnstone the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. ST Johnstone goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
Team Elo: ST Johnstone 1652 · Motherwell 1709
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
ST Johnstone · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1736
Motherwell · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1714
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
ST Johnstone
5th in Premiership · 12 pts from 9
- 17 OctDDundee Utd Scotland Premiership1647
- 11 OctWAberdeen Scotland Premiership1597
- 19 SepDFalkirk Scotland Premiership1664
- 9 SepLCeltic Scotland Premiership1645
- 6 SepWHibernian Scotland Premiership1569
Motherwell
10th in Premiership · 8 pts from 9
- 17 OctLKilmarnock Scotland Premiership1706
- 11 OctLCeltic Scotland Premiership1698
- 19 SepLDundee Scotland Premiership1741
- 15 SepLAberdeen Scotland Premiership1741
- 5 SepLRangers Scotland Premiership1773
Season outlook
From the Premiership simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 12 /9 | 40.0 | 0% | 12% | 24% | 8th |
| Motherwell | 8 /9 | 39.6 | 0% | 12% | 25% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
ST Johnstone: low-volume (how Simo Johannes Valakari plays) · Motherwell: balanced profile (how Alfred Johansson plays)