2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host Holstein Kiel on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37%, draw 29%, Holstein Kiel 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: SpVgg Greuther Fürth €867K, Holstein Kiel €1.1M.
- Home advantage makes SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1681 · Holstein Kiel 1758
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1690
Holstein Kiel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 (Good) · Elo 1792
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10th in 2. Bundesliga · 9 pts from 8
- 17 OctWEintracht Braunschweig Germany 2 Bundesliga1653
- 11 OctLHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1668
- 18 SepD1. FC Magdeburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1664
- 12 SepDVfL Bochum Germany 2 Bundesliga1680
- 6 SepL1. FC Heidenheim Germany 2 Bundesliga1702
Holstein Kiel
18th in 2. Bundesliga · 5 pts from 8
- 16 OctDHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1729
- 9 OctLEintracht Braunschweig Germany 2 Bundesliga1771
- 19 SepDVfL Osnabrück Germany 2 Bundesliga1768
- 13 SepL1. FC Heidenheim Germany 2 Bundesliga1773
- 5 SepD1. FC Nürnberg Germany 2 Bundesliga1809
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 /8 | 38.3 | 0% | 1% | 37% | 17th |
| Holstein Kiel | 5 /8 | 38.9 | 0% | 1% | 33% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: balanced profile (how Heiko Vogel plays) · Holstein Kiel: balanced profile (how Tim Laszlo Walter plays)