Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 31
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City host Austin on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sporting Kansas City 38%, draw 29%, Austin 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sporting Kansas City €716K, Austin €1.9M.
- Home advantage makes Sporting Kansas City the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sporting Kansas City goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Sporting Kansas City 1758 · Austin 1844
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sporting Kansas City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1900
Austin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Average) · Elo 1969
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sporting Kansas City
15th in MLS · 22 pts from 30
- 18 OctLReal Salt Lake MLS1769
- 15 OctLNashville SC MLS1690
- 11 OctDPortland Timbers MLS1768
- 2 OctLSeattle Sounders MLS1792
- 27 SepWHouston Dynamo MLS1737
Austin
14th in MLS · 31 pts from 30
- 18 OctLVancouver Whitecaps MLS1891
- 15 OctLLos Angeles FC MLS1921
- 11 OctLNashville SC MLS1878
- 27 SepDSan Diego MLS1875
- 20 SepDFC Dallas MLS1861
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 22 /30 | 26.3 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 30th |
| Austin | 31 /30 | 36.6 | 0% | 0% | 31% | 28th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sporting Kansas City: balanced profile (how Raphael Wicky plays) · Austin: low-volume (how Davy Arnaud plays)