Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 11
Sporting CP vs Moreirense
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 20:30 UTC
Sporting CP host Moreirense on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sporting CP 83%, draw 11%, Moreirense 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sporting CP €15.5M, Moreirense €1.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Primeira Liga matchday 11: 536 points.
- Draw chance 11%, below the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
- Style contrast in attacking (Primeira Liga): Sporting CP rank #2 of 18, Moreirense #15.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sporting CP goals first.
- 3–010%
- 2–09%
- 4–08%
- 3–18%
- 2–17%
- 4–17%
- Other scores51%
Team Elo: Sporting CP 2213 · Moreirense 1677
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sporting CP · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 2286
Moreirense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1657
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sporting CP
3rd in Primeira Liga · 18 pts from 8
- 21 OctLLask Linz UEFA Champions League2285
- 13 OctWLens UEFA Champions League2247
- 9 OctWSC Braga Primeira Liga2196
- 19 SepDArouca Primeira Liga2274
- 13 SepDFamalicao Primeira Liga2229
Moreirense
12th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 8
- 9 OctLGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1724
- 20 SepDVitória SC Primeira Liga1719
- 14 SepWMaritimo Primeira Liga1700
- 9 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1653
- 4 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga1646
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 18 /8 | 74.7 | 6% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
| Moreirense | 8 /8 | 36.2 | 0% | <1% | 25% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sporting CP: possession-based · creative (how Rui Borges plays) · Moreirense: balanced profile (how Vasco Costa plays)