First League · Regular Season - 15
Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stadion Spartak, Varna
Spartak Varna host Cherno More Varna on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Spartak Varna 39%, draw 29%, Cherno More Varna 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Spartak Varna €230K, Cherno More Varna €262K.
- Home advantage makes Spartak Varna the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (First League): Spartak Varna rank #16 of 16, Cherno More Varna #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Spartak Varna goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Spartak Varna 1405 · Cherno More Varna 1431
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Spartak Varna
7th in First League · 16 pts from 14
- 8 NovWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1407
- 30 OctLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1384
- 24 OctLDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1379
- 10 OctWBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1361
- 20 SepLLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1403
Cherno More Varna
9th in First League · 13 pts from 14
- 7 NovDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1447
- 2 NovWBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1410
- 27 OctWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1402
- 11 OctLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1395
- 19 SepDArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1398
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 16 /14 | 30.0 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 7th |
| Cherno More Varna | 13 /14 | 27.0 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Spartak Varna: low-volume (how Daniel Morales plays) · Cherno More Varna: balanced profile (how I. Iliev plays)