First League · Regular Season - 13
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Spartak, Varna
Spartak Varna host Arda Kardzhali on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Spartak Varna 34%, draw 29%, Arda Kardzhali 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Spartak Varna €202K, Arda Kardzhali €333K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Spartak Varna goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Spartak Varna 1405 · Arda Kardzhali 1502
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arda Kardzhali · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1455
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Spartak Varna
7th in First League · 13 pts from 11
- 10 OctWBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1369
- 20 SepLLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1410
- 13 SepDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1408
- 5 SepDCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1374
- 30 AugDLudogorets Bulgarian First League1364
Arda Kardzhali
6th in First League · 17 pts from 11
- 12 OctLLudogorets Bulgarian First League1525
- 19 SepDCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1527
- 12 SepLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1533
- 4 SepLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1535
- 31 AugWBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1512
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 13 /11 | 30.6 | 0% | <1% | 8% | 7th |
| Arda Kardzhali | 17 /11 | 37.2 | 0% | 5% | <1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Spartak Varna: low-volume (how Vasil Kostadinov Petrov plays) · Arda Kardzhali: balanced profile (how Aleksandar Blagov Tunchev plays)