Eredivisie · Regular Season - 10
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 15:45 UTC · Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Sparta Rotterdam 14%, draw 21%, Ajax 64%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sparta Rotterdam €1.1M, Ajax €6.4M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eredivisie matchday 10: 424 points.
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2291).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Sparta Rotterdam goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–38%
- 1–37%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 4.7 pts
Team Elo: Sparta Rotterdam 1738 · Ajax 2162
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sparta Rotterdam · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1555
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2203
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sparta Rotterdam
13th in Eredivisie · 9 pts from 9
- 17 OctWWillem II Eredivisie1678
- 10 OctDGO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie1681
- 19 SepLHeerenveen Eredivisie1735
- 13 SepLPSV Eindhoven Eredivisie1758
- 4 SepDPEC Zwolle Eredivisie1777
Ajax
4th in Eredivisie · 18 pts from 9
- 18 OctWGroningen Eredivisie2137
- 15 OctLHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League2076
- 10 OctDNEC Nijmegen Eredivisie2181
- 19 SepDExcelsior Eredivisie2179
- 15 SepWWillem II Eredivisie2137
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 9 /9 | 35.9 | 0% | 0% | 25% | 15th |
| Ajax | 18 /9 | 68.6 | 21% | 92% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sparta Rotterdam: balanced profile (how Rogier Meijer plays) · Ajax: possession-based (how Miguel Ángel Sánchez Muñoz plays)