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Championship · Regular Season - 9

Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Southampton crestSouthamptonTeam 2131
1–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Portsmouth crestPortsmouthTeam 1797

Match story

Southampton · draw · Portsmouth

Before kick-off: 70% · 18% · 12%

Live chances: Southampton 99%, draw 1%, Portsmouth 0% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Southampton 70%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 12%2' · 0–0 · Southampton 70%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 12%3' · 0–0 · Southampton 70%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 12%4' · 0–0 · Southampton 70%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 12%5' · 0–0 · Southampton 69%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 12%6' · 0–0 · Southampton 69%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 12%7' · 0–0 · Southampton 69%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 12%8' · 0–0 · Southampton 69%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 13%9' · 0–0 · Southampton 68%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 13%10' · 0–0 · Southampton 68%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 13%11' · 0–0 · Southampton 68%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 13%12' · 0–0 · Southampton 68%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 13%13' · 0–0 · Southampton 67%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 13%14' · 0–0 · Southampton 67%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 13%15' · 0–0 · Southampton 67%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 13%16' · 0–0 · Southampton 67%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 13%17' · 0–0 · Southampton 66%, draw 21%, Portsmouth 13%18' · 0–0 · Southampton 66%, draw 21%, Portsmouth 13%19' · 0–0 · Southampton 66%, draw 21%, Portsmouth 13%20' · 0–0 · Southampton 65%, draw 21%, Portsmouth 13%21' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 10%, Portsmouth 4%22' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 10%, Portsmouth 4%23' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 10%, Portsmouth 4%24' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 10%, Portsmouth 4%25' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 10%, Portsmouth 4%26' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 10%, Portsmouth 4%27' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%28' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%29' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%30' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%31' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%32' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%33' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%34' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%35' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%36' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%37' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%38' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%39' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%40' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 4%41' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 12%, Portsmouth 3%42' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 12%, Portsmouth 3%43' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 12%, Portsmouth 3%44' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 12%, Portsmouth 3%45' · 1–0 · Southampton 72%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 8%45+1' · 1–0 · Southampton 72%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 8%45+2' · 1–0 · Southampton 72%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 8%HT · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 8%46' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 8%47' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 8%48' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 8%49' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 8%50' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 7%51' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 7%52' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 7%53' · 1–0 · Southampton 73%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 7%54' · 1–0 · Southampton 74%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 7%55' · 1–0 · Southampton 74%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 7%56' · 1–0 · Southampton 74%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 6%57' · 1–0 · Southampton 74%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 6%58' · 1–0 · Southampton 74%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 6%59' · 1–0 · Southampton 75%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 6%60' · 1–0 · Southampton 75%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 6%61' · 1–0 · Southampton 75%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 6%62' · 1–0 · Southampton 75%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 5%63' · 1–0 · Southampton 76%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 5%64' · 1–0 · Southampton 76%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 5%65' · 1–0 · Southampton 76%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 5%66' · 1–0 · Southampton 76%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 5%67' · 1–0 · Southampton 77%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 4%68' · 1–0 · Southampton 77%, draw 19%, Portsmouth 4%69' · 1–0 · Southampton 77%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 4%70' · 1–0 · Southampton 78%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 4%71' · 1–0 · Southampton 78%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 4%72' · 1–0 · Southampton 79%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 4%73' · 1–0 · Southampton 79%, draw 18%, Portsmouth 3%74' · 1–0 · Southampton 79%, draw 17%, Portsmouth 3%75' · 1–0 · Southampton 80%, draw 17%, Portsmouth 3%76' · 1–0 · Southampton 80%, draw 17%, Portsmouth 3%77' · 1–0 · Southampton 81%, draw 17%, Portsmouth 3%78' · 1–0 · Southampton 81%, draw 16%, Portsmouth 2%79' · 1–0 · Southampton 82%, draw 16%, Portsmouth 2%80' · 1–0 · Southampton 83%, draw 15%, Portsmouth 2%81' · 1–0 · Southampton 83%, draw 15%, Portsmouth 2%83' · 1–0 · Southampton 85%, draw 14%, Portsmouth 2%85' · 1–0 · Southampton 86%, draw 13%, Portsmouth 1%86' · 1–0 · Southampton 87%, draw 12%, Portsmouth 1%87' · 1–0 · Southampton 88%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 1%88' · 1–0 · Southampton 89%, draw 11%, Portsmouth 1%89' · 1–0 · Southampton 90%, draw 10%, Portsmouth 1%90' · 1–0 · Southampton 91%, draw 9%, Portsmouth 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Southampton 92%, draw 8%, Portsmouth 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Southampton 93%, draw 6%, Portsmouth 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Southampton 95%, draw 5%, Portsmouth 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Southampton 96%, draw 4%, Portsmouth 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Southampton 98%, draw 2%, Portsmouth 0%90+6' · 1–0 · Southampton 99%, draw 1%, Portsmouth 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 99% · 1% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Southampton 70% to win: they did.

  1. 20'Southampton:James Bree 2212 +1* assist Finn Azaz 2251 +8
  2. 32'Southampton:Cameron Bragg 1778 −2*
  3. 34'Portsmouth:Ebou Adams 1818 −10*
  4. 44'Southampton:Cameron Bragg 1778 −2*
  5. 45'Portsmouth:Adrian Segecic 1903 −9* for Ryan Kavuma-McQueen 1426 −8*
  6. 51'Southampton:Cyle Larin 2093 −6*
  7. 53'Southampton:Finn Azaz 2251 +8
  8. 53'Portsmouth:Jayden Meghoma 1838 −8*
  9. 57'Southampton:Kuryu Matsuki 2143 −6* for Léo Scienza 2176 −6*
  10. 65'Portsmouth:Odin Bailey 1886 −9* for Ebou Adams 1818 −10*
  11. 65'Portsmouth:Terry Devlin 2020 −2 for Jayden Meghoma 1838 −8*
  12. 65'Portsmouth:Marko Milovanović 1643 −8* for Colby·Bishop 1878 −11*
  13. 69'Portsmouth:Terry Devlin 2020 −2
  14. 72'Southampton:Caspar Jander 2205 −6* for Cyle Larin 2093 −6*
  15. 77'Portsmouth:Keshi Anderson 1913 −11* for Zak Swanson 1875 −9*
  16. 82'Southampton:Keven Schlotterbeck 2099 +5*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GN. Schmid1917−11*
DZ. Swanson1875−9*
DR. Poole1888−10*
DM. Dia1620−8*
DJ. Meghoma1838−8*
MM. Pack1836−16*
ME. Adams1818−10*
MA. Kamara1848−8*
MT. Shade1817−8*
MR. Kavuma McQueen1426−8*
FC. Bishop1878−11*
CJohn Mousinho1913−13*
Before kick-off: 70% · 18% · 12%(Southampton · draw · Portsmouth)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–1 (9%); the result 1–0 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Southampton €4.8M, Portsmouth €1.2M.
  • Draw chance was 21%, below the Championship average of 27% this round.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Southampton

16th in Championship · 10 pts from 8

  • 19 SepLWrexham 2168
  • 12 SepWBristol City 2154
  • 8 SepWSwansea 2141
  • 5 SepDLincoln 2135
  • 29 AugWMillwall 2092

Portsmouth

19th in Championship · 8 pts from 7

  • 19 SepDBlackburn 1782
  • 12 SepDCharlton 1838
  • 5 SepWCardiff 1784
  • 29 AugLBristol City 1811
  • 22 AugWLincoln 1762

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Southampton10 /875.813%56%0%2nd
Portsmouth8 /748.10%0%50%23rd
Southampton
Portsmouth

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

R. Manning
R. Manning

Southampton · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2230

M. Pack
M. Pack

Portsmouth · +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1851

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Tonda Eckert

Coach DNA: possession-based

John Michael Lewis Mousinho

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Southampton: possession-based (how Tonda Eckert plays) · Portsmouth: balanced profile (how John Michael Lewis Mousinho plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.