Championship · Regular Season - 18
Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Fri 27 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Southampton host Middlesbrough on Fri 27 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Southampton 45%, draw 28%, Middlesbrough 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Southampton €5.0M, Middlesbrough €4.4M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Southampton goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–07%
- 0–17%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Southampton 2134 · Middlesbrough 2087
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Southampton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.6 (Elite) · Elo 2093
Middlesbrough · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2125
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Southampton
7th in Championship · 24 pts from 15
- 7 NovLPreston England Championship2160
- 3 NovDWest Brom England Championship2155
- 31 OctWQPR England Championship2131
- 24 OctWWest Ham England Championship2152
- 17 OctDBolton England Championship2108
Middlesbrough
2nd in Championship · 29 pts from 15
- 7 NovDWatford England Championship2081
- 4 NovLWrexham England Championship2119
- 31 OctWCharlton England Championship2108
- 23 OctWBolton England Championship2075
- 17 OctDCardiff England Championship2064
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 24 /15 | 77.5 | 15% | 55% | 0% | 1st |
| Middlesbrough | 29 /15 | 79.4 | 20% | 63% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Southampton: possession-based (how Tonda Eckert plays) · Middlesbrough: possession-based (how K. Hellberg plays)