Championship · Regular Season - 16
Southampton vs Derby
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Southampton host Derby on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Southampton 66%, draw 21%, Derby 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Southampton €5.2M, Derby €2.6M.
- Draw chance 21%, below the Championship average of 27% this round.
- Style contrast in possession (Championship): Southampton rank #4 of 24, Derby #23.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Southampton goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–010%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Southampton 2149 · Derby 1856
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Southampton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.6 (Elite) · Elo 2093
Derby · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1901
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Southampton
7th in Championship · 24 pts from 15
- 7 NovLPreston England Championship2160
- 3 NovDWest Brom England Championship2155
- 31 OctWQPR England Championship2131
- 24 OctWWest Ham England Championship2152
- 17 OctDBolton England Championship2108
Derby
23rd in Championship · 10 pts from 15
- 6 NovWBolton England Championship1864
- 3 NovLNorwich England Championship1804
- 31 OctLMillwall England Championship1842
- 24 OctDSheffield Utd England Championship1835
- 17 OctLStoke City England Championship1868
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 24 /15 | 78.7 | 18% | 61% | 0% | 1st |
| Derby | 10 /15 | 43.8 | 0% | 0% | 68% | 23rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Southampton: possession-based (how Tonda Eckert plays) · Derby: direct (how J. Eustace plays)