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Championship · Regular Season - 11

Southampton 0–0 Bolton

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Southampton crestSouthamptonTeam 2135
0–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Bolton crestBoltonTeam 1920

Match story

Southampton · draw · Bolton

Before kick-off: 61% · 22% · 17%

Live chances: Southampton 1%, draw 98%, Bolton 1% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Southampton 61%, draw 22%, Bolton 17%3' · 0–0 · Southampton 61%, draw 22%, Bolton 17%4' · 0–0 · Southampton 60%, draw 22%, Bolton 17%5' · 0–0 · Southampton 60%, draw 22%, Bolton 18%6' · 0–0 · Southampton 60%, draw 22%, Bolton 18%7' · 0–0 · Southampton 60%, draw 23%, Bolton 18%8' · 0–0 · Southampton 60%, draw 23%, Bolton 18%9' · 0–0 · Southampton 59%, draw 23%, Bolton 18%10' · 0–0 · Southampton 59%, draw 23%, Bolton 18%11' · 0–0 · Southampton 59%, draw 23%, Bolton 18%12' · 0–0 · Southampton 59%, draw 23%, Bolton 18%13' · 0–0 · Southampton 59%, draw 23%, Bolton 18%14' · 0–0 · Southampton 58%, draw 24%, Bolton 18%15' · 0–0 · Southampton 58%, draw 24%, Bolton 18%16' · 0–0 · Southampton 58%, draw 24%, Bolton 18%18' · 0–0 · Southampton 58%, draw 24%, Bolton 18%19' · 0–0 · Southampton 57%, draw 24%, Bolton 18%20' · 0–0 · Southampton 57%, draw 25%, Bolton 18%21' · 0–0 · Southampton 57%, draw 25%, Bolton 18%22' · 0–0 · Southampton 57%, draw 25%, Bolton 18%23' · 0–0 · Southampton 56%, draw 25%, Bolton 19%24' · 0–0 · Southampton 56%, draw 25%, Bolton 19%25' · 0–0 · Southampton 56%, draw 26%, Bolton 19%26' · 0–0 · Southampton 56%, draw 26%, Bolton 19%27' · 0–0 · Southampton 55%, draw 26%, Bolton 19%28' · 0–0 · Southampton 55%, draw 26%, Bolton 19%29' · 0–0 · Southampton 55%, draw 26%, Bolton 19%30' · 0–0 · Southampton 55%, draw 27%, Bolton 19%32' · 0–0 · Southampton 54%, draw 27%, Bolton 19%33' · 0–0 · Southampton 54%, draw 27%, Bolton 19%34' · 0–0 · Southampton 53%, draw 28%, Bolton 19%35' · 0–0 · Southampton 53%, draw 28%, Bolton 19%36' · 0–0 · Southampton 53%, draw 28%, Bolton 19%37' · 0–0 · Southampton 53%, draw 28%, Bolton 19%38' · 0–0 · Southampton 52%, draw 29%, Bolton 19%39' · 0–0 · Southampton 52%, draw 29%, Bolton 19%41' · 0–0 · Southampton 51%, draw 29%, Bolton 19%42' · 0–0 · Southampton 51%, draw 30%, Bolton 19%43' · 0–0 · Southampton 51%, draw 30%, Bolton 19%44' · 0–0 · Southampton 50%, draw 30%, Bolton 19%45+1' · 0–0 · Southampton 50%, draw 31%, Bolton 19%45+2' · 0–0 · Southampton 49%, draw 31%, Bolton 19%HT · 0–0 · Southampton 49%, draw 32%, Bolton 19%46' · 0–0 · Southampton 49%, draw 32%, Bolton 19%47' · 0–0 · Southampton 48%, draw 32%, Bolton 19%49' · 0–0 · Southampton 48%, draw 33%, Bolton 19%50' · 0–0 · Southampton 47%, draw 34%, Bolton 19%51' · 0–0 · Southampton 47%, draw 34%, Bolton 19%52' · 0–0 · Southampton 46%, draw 35%, Bolton 19%53' · 0–0 · Southampton 46%, draw 35%, Bolton 19%54' · 0–0 · Southampton 45%, draw 36%, Bolton 19%55' · 0–0 · Southampton 45%, draw 36%, Bolton 19%56' · 0–0 · Southampton 44%, draw 37%, Bolton 19%57' · 0–0 · Southampton 43%, draw 38%, Bolton 19%58' · 0–0 · Southampton 43%, draw 38%, Bolton 19%59' · 0–0 · Southampton 42%, draw 39%, Bolton 19%60' · 0–0 · Southampton 42%, draw 40%, Bolton 19%61' · 0–0 · Southampton 41%, draw 40%, Bolton 19%62' · 0–0 · Southampton 41%, draw 41%, Bolton 18%63' · 0–0 · Southampton 40%, draw 42%, Bolton 18%64' · 0–0 · Southampton 39%, draw 42%, Bolton 18%65' · 0–0 · Southampton 39%, draw 43%, Bolton 18%66' · 0–0 · Southampton 38%, draw 44%, Bolton 18%67' · 0–0 · Southampton 37%, draw 45%, Bolton 18%68' · 0–0 · Southampton 37%, draw 46%, Bolton 18%69' · 0–0 · Southampton 36%, draw 47%, Bolton 17%70' · 0–0 · Southampton 35%, draw 48%, Bolton 17%72' · 0–0 · Southampton 34%, draw 49%, Bolton 17%73' · 0–0 · Southampton 33%, draw 51%, Bolton 16%74' · 0–0 · Southampton 32%, draw 52%, Bolton 16%75' · 0–0 · Southampton 31%, draw 53%, Bolton 16%76' · 0–0 · Southampton 31%, draw 54%, Bolton 16%77' · 0–0 · Southampton 30%, draw 55%, Bolton 15%78' · 0–0 · Southampton 29%, draw 56%, Bolton 15%79' · 0–0 · Southampton 28%, draw 58%, Bolton 14%80' · 0–0 · Southampton 27%, draw 59%, Bolton 14%81' · 0–0 · Southampton 26%, draw 61%, Bolton 14%82' · 0–0 · Southampton 24%, draw 62%, Bolton 13%83' · 0–0 · Southampton 23%, draw 64%, Bolton 13%84' · 0–0 · Southampton 22%, draw 66%, Bolton 12%85' · 0–0 · Southampton 21%, draw 68%, Bolton 11%86' · 0–0 · Southampton 20%, draw 70%, Bolton 11%87' · 0–0 · Southampton 18%, draw 71%, Bolton 10%88' · 0–0 · Southampton 17%, draw 74%, Bolton 9%89' · 0–0 · Southampton 15%, draw 76%, Bolton 9%90' · 0–0 · Southampton 14%, draw 79%, Bolton 8%90+1' · 0–0 · Southampton 12%, draw 81%, Bolton 7%90+2' · 0–0 · Southampton 10%, draw 84%, Bolton 6%90+3' · 0–0 · Southampton 8%, draw 87%, Bolton 5%90+4' · 0–0 · Southampton 6%, draw 91%, Bolton 3%90+5' · 0–0 · Southampton 4%, draw 94%, Bolton 2%90+6' · 0–0 · Southampton 1%, draw 98%, Bolton 1%

Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 98% · 1%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Southampton 61% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 41'Southampton:Lewis Dobbin 1899 0 for Cyle Larin 2090 −3
  2. 44'Bolton:Akin Famewo 1921 +9
  3. 45'Bolton:Ruben Rodrigues 1867 +13 for Atsuki Ito 1959 +3
  4. 45'Southampton:Kuryu Matsuki 2171 −2 for Tom Fellows 2146 −10*
  5. 59'Southampton:Cameron Bragg 1778 0
  6. 61'Bolton:Ethan Erhahon 1965 +7 for Xavier Simons 1860 +8
  7. 61'Bolton:Kyliane Dong 1652 +6 for Thierry Gale 1987 +5
  8. 73'Southampton:Ryan Manning 2242 −3 for Welington 2067 0
  9. 73'Southampton:Samuel Edozie 2001 0 for Cameron Bragg 1778 0
  10. 73'Bolton:Thelonius Bair 1802 +2 for Sam Dalby 1981 +6
  11. 76'Bolton:Lewis Brunt 1981 +9
  12. 83'Bolton:Thelonius Bair 1802 +2
  13. 85'Southampton:Kuryu Matsuki 2171 −2
  14. 87'Bolton:Samuel Iling 1887 0 for Gaizka Larrazabal 1934 +8
  15. 88'Bolton:Luca Stephenson 1729 +8*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GDaniel Peretz2228−7
DJ. Bree2219−4
DJ. Stephens2144−8
DK. Schlotterbeck2113−4
DWelington20670
MT. Fellows2146−10*
MCameron Bragg17780
MJ. Ward-Prowse2036−4
MF. Azaz2266−4
MLéo Scienza2170−6
FC. Larin2090−3
CTonda Eckert2139−2
GG. Bazunu2038+6
DGaizka Larrazabal1934+8
DE. Toal2022+6
DL. Brunt1981+9
DA. Famewo1921+9
MJ. Sheehan1955+5
MLuca Stephenson1729+8*
MA. Ito1959+3
MX. Simons1860+8
MT. Gale1987+5
FS. Dalby1981+6
CS. Schumacher1994+13
Before kick-off: 61% · 22% · 17%(Southampton · draw · Bolton)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (10%); the result 0–0 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Southampton €5.2M, Bolton €1.2M.
  • Southampton were without 1 expected starter: F. Downes (2177).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Championship matchday 11: 203 points.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Southampton

8th in Championship · 16 pts from 10

  • 14 OctWNorwich 2077
  • 11 OctWPortsmouth 2116
  • 19 SepLWrexham 2168
  • 12 SepWBristol City 2154
  • 8 SepWSwansea 2141

Bolton

14th in Championship · 13 pts from 10

  • 13 OctWWolves 1905
  • 10 OctLStoke City 1912
  • 20 SepWNorwich 1870
  • 12 SepWCardiff 1850
  • 8 SepLWest Ham 1859

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Southampton16 /1078.113%63%0%2nd
Bolton13 /1058.10%1%9%14th
Southampton
Bolton

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

C. Larin
C. Larin

Southampton · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2093

T. Gale
T. Gale

Bolton · +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1983

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Tonda Eckert

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Steven Schumacher

Coach DNA: creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Southampton: possession-based (how Tonda Eckert plays) · Bolton: possession-based · creative (how Steven Schumacher plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.