First League · Regular Season - 13
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
Slavia Sofia host Cherno More Varna on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Slavia Sofia 40%, draw 29%, Cherno More Varna 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Slavia Sofia €266K, Cherno More Varna €204K.
- Home advantage makes Slavia Sofia the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Slavia Sofia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Slavia Sofia 1416 · Cherno More Varna 1428
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Slavia Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1486
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Slavia Sofia
8th in First League · 11 pts from 11
- 10 OctLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1401
- 18 SepLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1437
- 13 SepDSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1478
- 7 SepWDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1452
- 2 SepLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1444
Cherno More Varna
14th in First League · 6 pts from 11
- 11 OctLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1402
- 19 SepDArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1407
- 11 SepDLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1438
- 6 SepLLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1457
- 30 AugLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1475
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 11 /11 | 28.6 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 8th |
| Cherno More Varna | 6 /11 | 24.7 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Slavia Sofia: balanced profile (how Ratko Dostanić plays) · Cherno More Varna: balanced profile (how Ilian Dimov Iliev plays)