1. Lig · Regular Season - 9
Sivasspor 4–1 Pendikspor
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Yeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivas
SivassporTeam 1558PendiksporTeam 1614We gave Sivasspor 39% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 39% · 29% · 32%(Sivasspor · draw · Pendikspor)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–1 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Sivasspor €356K, Pendikspor €286K.
- All 11 of Pendikspor's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sivasspor
15th in 1. Lig · 8 pts from 8
- 19 SepDKeçiörengücü Turkey 1 Lig1590
- 13 SepDMuğlaspor Turkey 1 Lig1663
- 6 SepWAntalyaspor Turkey 1 Lig1612
- 2 SepDMardin 1969 Turkey 1 Lig1651
- 29 AugLBatman Petrolspor Turkey 1 Lig1659
Pendikspor
12th in 1. Lig · 10 pts from 8
- 20 SepDBodrum FK Turkey 1 Lig1605
- 12 SepDBoluspor Turkey 1 Lig1628
- 5 SepWÜmraniyespor Turkey 1 Lig1618
- 28 AugDBandırmaspor Turkey 1 Lig1580
- 16 AugLKeçiörengücü Turkey 1 Lig1645
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor | 8 /8 | 50.8 | <1% | 6% | 5% | 11th |
| Pendikspor | 10 /8 | 47.1 | 0% | 2% | 14% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sivasspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1588
Pendikspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1650
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sivasspor: balanced profile (how İsmet Taşdemir plays) · Pendikspor: balanced profile (how Umut Eskikoy plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.