Allsvenskan · Regular Season - 24
Sirius 2–2 IF Elfsborg
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Studenternas IP, Uppsala
SiriusTeam 1731IF ElfsborgTeam 1705- Joakim Persson 70', 73'
- Julius Beck 20'
- Leo Hakan Ostman 87'
We gave Sirius 43% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 20'Julius Beck – assist Ari Sigurpalsson –IF Elfsborg:Julius Beck – assist Ari Sigurpalsson –
- 39'Ari Sigurpalsson –IF Elfsborg:Ari Sigurpalsson –
- Victor Svensson –43'Sirius:Victor Svensson –
- 53'Thomas Isherwood –IF Elfsborg:Thomas Isherwood –
- Adam Vikman – for Victor Svensson –60'Sirius:Adam Vikman – for Victor Svensson –
- 62'Ossian nordvall – for Simon Olsson –IF Elfsborg:Ossian nordvall – for Simon Olsson –
- 62'Arbër Zeneli – for Ari Sigurpalsson –IF Elfsborg:Arbër Zeneli – for Ari Sigurpalsson –
- Joakim Persson – assist Marcus Lindberg –70'Sirius:Joakim Persson – assist Marcus Lindberg –
- Joakim Persson – assist Marcus Lindberg –73'Sirius:Joakim Persson – assist Marcus Lindberg –
- Mohamed Soumah –78'Sirius:Mohamed Soumah –
- Otso Liimatta – for Ake Andersson83'Sirius:Otso Liimatta – for Ake Andersson
- 87'Leo Hakan Ostman – assist Niklas Hult –IF Elfsborg:Leo Hakan Ostman – assist Niklas Hult –
Before kick-off (provisional): 43% · 28% · 28%(Sirius · draw · IF Elfsborg)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Sirius €1.0M, IF Elfsborg €739K.
- Sirius' expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
- IF Elfsborg's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sirius
1st in Allsvenskan · 54 pts from 23
- 10 OctWGais Allsvenskan1739
- 19 SepWOrgryte IS Allsvenskan1779
- 14 SepWDegerfors IF Allsvenskan1769
- 5 SepWVasteras SK FK Allsvenskan1746
- 31 AugLMalmo FF Allsvenskan1742
IF Elfsborg
4th in Allsvenskan · 40 pts from 23
- 12 OctWHalmstad Allsvenskan1712
- 20 SepWDjurgardens IF Allsvenskan1696
- 13 SepWKalmar FF Allsvenskan1676
- 6 SepLIF Brommapojkarna Allsvenskan1691
- 29 AugWDegerfors IF Allsvenskan1638
Season outlook
From the Allsvenskan simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 54 /23 | 64.9 | 89% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| IF Elfsborg | 40 /23 | 50.0 | 0% | 48% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sirius · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 1816
IF Elfsborg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1772
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sirius: balanced profile (how Andreas Engelmark plays) · IF Elfsborg: direct (how Bjorn Hamberg plays)