Super League · Regular Season - 27
Sichuan Jiuniu 2–2 Henan Jianye
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 11:35 UTC · Shenzhen Stadium, Shenzhen
Sichuan JiuniuTeam 1661Henan JianyeTeam 1620We gave Sichuan Jiuniu 45% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 45% · 28% · 27%(Sichuan Jiuniu · draw · Henan Jianye)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Sichuan Jiuniu €398K, Henan Jianye €300K.
- Henan Jianye's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Sichuan Jiuniu
11th in Super League · 28 pts from 26
- 5 SepDShandong Luneng Chinese Super League1703
- 28 AugLShanghai SIPG Chinese Super League1684
- 22 AugDHangzhou Greentown Chinese Super League1685
- 15 AugWShenyang Urban Chinese Super League1691
- 7 AugLBeijing Guoan Chinese Super League1685
Henan Jianye
12th in Super League · 27 pts from 26
- 12 SepDWuhan Three Towns Chinese Super League1661
- 6 SepDChengdu Better City Chinese Super League1670
- 29 AugDChongqing Tongliang Long Chinese Super League1705
- 23 AugDShenyang Urban Chinese Super League1737
- 15 AugLShanghai Shenhua Chinese Super League1731
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sichuan Jiuniu | 28 /26 | 33.8 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 11th |
| Henan Jianye | 27 /26 | 31.9 | 0% | 0% | 18% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Sichuan Jiuniu · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1790
Henan Jianye · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1738
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Sichuan Jiuniu: balanced profile (how Robbie Neilson plays) · Henan Jianye: balanced profile (how Daniel António Lopes Ramos plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.