League Two · Regular Season - 10
Shrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · New Meadow, Shrewsbury
ShrewsburyTeam 1571Exeter CityTeam 1527Match story
Shrewsbury · draw · Exeter CityBefore kick-off: 43% · 30% · 27%
Last reading, 90+7': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Sonny Cox 86'
We gave Shrewsbury 43% to win: Exeter City won.
- Tom Sang 1657 −111'Shrewsbury:Tom Sang 1657 −1
- 43'Jake Doyle Hayes 1622 +23Exeter City:Jake Doyle Hayes 1622 +23
- Luca Hoole 1701 065'Shrewsbury:Luca Hoole 1701 0
- Arkelle Jude-Boyd 1614 −8* for Luca Hoole 1701 067'Shrewsbury:Arkelle Jude-Boyd 1614 −8* for Luca Hoole 1701 0
- 69'Ethan Sutherland 1471 +9 for Anthony Scully 1631 +17Exeter City:Ethan Sutherland 1471 +9 for Anthony Scully 1631 +17
- Josh Davison 1605 0 for Isaac Fletcher 1456 073'Shrewsbury:Josh Davison 1605 0 for Isaac Fletcher 1456 0
- will gray for Tom Sang 1657 −174'Shrewsbury:will gray for Tom Sang 1657 −1
- will gray76'Shrewsbury:will gray
- 77'Taylor Perry 1675 +16Exeter City:Taylor Perry 1675 +16
- 78'Sonny Cox 1593 +8 for Taylor Perry 1675 +16Exeter City:Sonny Cox 1593 +8 for Taylor Perry 1675 +16
- 86'Sonny Cox 1593 +8 assist George Birch 1470 +104Exeter City:Sonny Cox 1593 +8 assist George Birch 1470 +104
- Joseph Gbode 1474 −8* for Kevin Berkoe 1707 089'Shrewsbury:Joseph Gbode 1474 −8* for Kevin Berkoe 1707 0
- J. Turner-Cook 1174 090'Shrewsbury:J. Turner-Cook 1174 0
- 90+5'Vincent Harper 1661 −8* for George Birch 1470 +104Exeter City:Vincent Harper 1661 −8* for George Birch 1470 +104
- 90+6'Edward James 1569 −7* for Sonny Cox 1593 +8Exeter City:Edward James 1569 −7* for Sonny Cox 1593 +8
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 43% · 30% · 27%(Shrewsbury · draw · Exeter City)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–1 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Shrewsbury €181K, Exeter City €231K.
- Style contrast in possession (League Two): Shrewsbury ranked #23 of 24, Exeter City #3.
- Shrewsbury's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.5 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shrewsbury
14th in League Two · 11 pts from 9
- 3 OctWGrimsby England League Two1578
- 26 SepDColchester England League Two1543
- 22 SepLTranmere England EFL Trophy1476
- 19 SepDCrewe England League Two1619
- 12 SepWNorthampton England League Two1548
Exeter City
20th in League Two · 9 pts from 9
- 6 OctDOxford United England EFL Trophy1528
- 3 OctWRotherham England League Two1542
- 26 SepLBristol Rovers England League Two1556
- 22 SepDCheltenham England EFL Trophy1493
- 19 SepDTranmere England League Two1578
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 11 /9 | 60.0 | <1% | 6% | 8% | 13th |
| Exeter City | 9 /9 | 54.3 | <1% | 1% | 24% | 21st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shrewsbury · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1624
Exeter City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1713
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shrewsbury: direct (how Gavin Patrick Cowan plays) · Exeter City: balanced profile (how Matthew James Taylor plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.