Premier Division · Regular Season - 36
Shelbourne vs Waterford
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Tolka Park, Dublin
Shelbourne host Waterford on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Premier Division); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Shelbourne 47%, draw 28%, Waterford 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shelbourne €270K, Waterford €183K.
- Style contrast in possession (Premier Division): Shelbourne rank #2 of 11, Waterford #8.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Shelbourne goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Shelbourne 1536 · Waterford 1468
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shelbourne · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1608
Waterford · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1556
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shelbourne
4th in Premier Division · 46 pts from 34
- 16 OctWSt Patrick's Athl. Irish Premier Division1510
- 9 OctWSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1499
- 25 SepDGalway United Irish Premier Division1475
- 18 SepWDundalk Irish Premier Division1475
- 14 SepLDrogheda United Irish Premier Division1472
Waterford
9th in Premier Division · 34 pts from 33
- 16 OctLBohemians Irish Premier Division1506
- 18 SepLShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1502
- 14 SepDDerry City Irish Premier Division1502
- 11 SepDDundalk Irish Premier Division1513
- 28 AugWSt Patrick's Athl. Irish Premier Division1452
Season outlook
From the Premier Division simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 46 /34 | 48.7 | 0% | 72% | 0% | 4th |
| Waterford | 34 /33 | 38.2 | 0% | 0% | 95% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shelbourne: possession-based (how John Russell plays) · Waterford: balanced profile (how Graham Coughlan plays)