Premier Division · Regular Season - 33
Shelbourne 5–1 Sligo Rovers
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Tolka Park, Dublin
ShelbourneTeam 1499Sligo RoversTeam 1418We gave Shelbourne 48% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 48% · 27% · 25%(Shelbourne · draw · Sligo Rovers)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 5–1 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shelbourne €222K, Sligo Rovers €206K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Premier Division): Shelbourne ranked #9 of 11, Sligo Rovers #4.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shelbourne
6th in Premier Division · 40 pts from 32
- 25 SepDGalway United Irish Premier Division1475
- 18 SepWDundalk Irish Premier Division1475
- 14 SepLDrogheda United Irish Premier Division1472
- 11 SepLDerry City Irish Premier Division1512
- 4 SepDShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1476
Sligo Rovers
10th in Premier Division · 23 pts from 32
- 19 SepLSt Patrick's Athl. Irish Premier Division1368
- 14 SepLGalway United Irish Premier Division1395
- 11 SepLDrogheda United Irish Premier Division1415
- 28 AugLBohemians Irish Premier Division1446
- 21 AugDWaterford Irish Premier Division1449
Season outlook
From the Premier Division simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 40 /32 | 45.2 | 0% | 17% | 3% | 5th |
| Sligo Rovers | 23 /32 | 27.4 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shelbourne · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1489
Sligo Rovers · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1441
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shelbourne: possession-based (how John Russell plays) · Sligo Rovers: balanced profile (how Darren John Purse plays)