Premier League · Regular Season - 10
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Shakhtar Donetsk host Zorya Luhansk on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Shakhtar Donetsk 78%, draw 15%, Zorya Luhansk 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shakhtar Donetsk €5.7M, Zorya Luhansk €411K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 10: 445 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the Premier League average of 24% this round.
- Premier League: D. Riznyk is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2199).
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier League): Shakhtar Donetsk rank #1 of 15, Zorya Luhansk #15.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Shakhtar Donetsk goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- 1–17%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Shakhtar Donetsk 1993 · Zorya Luhansk 1548
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shakhtar Donetsk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2134
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st in Premier League · 24 pts from 9
- 17 OctWKolos Kovalivka Ukraine Premier League1888
- 14 OctWAEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League2058
- 9 OctWVeres Rivne Ukraine Premier League2055
- 20 SepWLNZ Cherkasy Ukraine Premier League1967
- 14 SepWChornomorets Ukraine Premier League1924
Zorya Luhansk
7th in Premier League · 14 pts from 9
- 17 OctWChornomorets Ukraine Premier League1510
- 12 OctWLivyi Bereh Ukraine Premier League1482
- 19 SepLDynamo Kyiv Ukraine Premier League1508
- 6 SepDVeres Rivne Ukraine Premier League1507
- 31 AugLFC Kharkiv Ukraine Premier League1522
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 24 /9 | 72.5 | 88% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Zorya Luhansk | 14 /9 | 41.0 | 0% | 3% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shakhtar Donetsk: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Arda Turan plays) · Zorya Luhansk: balanced profile (how Viktor Skrypnyk plays)