Premier League · Regular Season - 13
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Arena Livyi Bereg, Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk host Livyi Bereh on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Shakhtar Donetsk 85%, draw 10%, Livyi Bereh 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shakhtar Donetsk €5.1M, Livyi Bereh €242K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 13: 565 points.
- Draw chance 10%, below the Premier League average of 25% this round.
- Premier League: D. Riznyk is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2136).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Premier League): Shakhtar Donetsk rank #1 of 16, Livyi Bereh #16.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Shakhtar Donetsk goals first.
- 2–018%
- 1–015%
- 3–015%
- 4–09%
- 2–17%
- 3–16%
- Other scores30%
Team Elo: Shakhtar Donetsk 1958 · Livyi Bereh 1393
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Shakhtar Donetsk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2140
Livyi Bereh · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 (Poor) · Elo 1405
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st in Premier League · 29 pts from 12
- 8 NovDDynamo Kyiv Ukraine Premier League2018
- 3 NovLSporting CP UEFA Champions League2038
- 30 OctWObolon'-Brovar Ukraine Premier League1922
- 24 OctDZorya Luhansk Ukraine Premier League1914
- 21 OctLInter UEFA Champions League2056
Livyi Bereh
12th in Premier League · 9 pts from 10
- 6 NovDObolon'-Brovar Ukraine Premier League1401
- 24 OctDLNZ Cherkasy Ukraine Premier League1381
- 19 OctLFC Kharkiv Ukraine Premier League1432
- 12 OctLZorya Luhansk Ukraine Premier League1375
- 19 SepWEpitsentr Dunayivtsi Ukraine Premier League1349
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 29 /12 | 70.0 | 81% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Livyi Bereh | 9 /10 | 27.0 | 0% | 0% | 38% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shakhtar Donetsk: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Arda Turan plays) · Livyi Bereh: direct · low-volume (how Oleksandr Riabokon plays)