Premier League · Regular Season - 9
Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Kolos Kovalivka
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Arena Lviv, Lviv
Shakhtar DonetskTeam 2015
Kolos KovalivkaTeam 1569- Vinícius Tobias 10'
- Valeriy Bondar 36'
- Ardit Tahiri 84'
We gave Shakhtar Donetsk 78% to win: they did.
- Vinícius Tobias – assist Alan Matturro –10'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Vinícius Tobias – assist Alan Matturro – - Valeriy Bondar – assist Egor Nazaryna –36'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Valeriy Bondar – assist Egor Nazaryna – - 45'Luka Stankovski – for Arinaldo Rrapaj –
Kolos Kovalivka:Luka Stankovski – for Arinaldo Rrapaj – - Vinícius Tobias –51'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Vinícius Tobias – - A. Turan58'
Shakhtar Donetsk:A. Turan - Mykola Matvienko – for Alan Matturro –58'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Mykola Matvienko – for Alan Matturro – - Gleiker Mendoza – for Prosper Obah –58'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Gleiker Mendoza – for Prosper Obah – - Lassina Traore – for Luca Meirelles –58'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Lassina Traore – for Luca Meirelles – - 60'Mykyta Burda –
Kolos Kovalivka:Mykyta Burda – - 61'Andriy Tsurikov –
Kolos Kovalivka:Andriy Tsurikov – - 70'Ardit Tahiri – for Denys Ndukve –
Kolos Kovalivka:Ardit Tahiri – for Denys Ndukve – - 70'Irgi Kasalla – for Ibrahim Kane –
Kolos Kovalivka:Irgi Kasalla – for Ibrahim Kane – - 71'Anton Salabay –
Kolos Kovalivka:Anton Salabay – - Pedrinho – for Isaque71'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Pedrinho – for Isaque - 80'Daniil Denysenko – for Oleksandr Demchenko –
Kolos Kovalivka:Daniil Denysenko – for Oleksandr Demchenko – - 84'Ardit Tahiri – assist Luka Stankovski –
Kolos Kovalivka:Ardit Tahiri – assist Luka Stankovski – - Oleg Ocheretko – for Dmytro Kryskiv –87'
Shakhtar Donetsk:Oleg Ocheretko – for Dmytro Kryskiv – - 88'Dmytro Sukhonos – for Anton Salabay –
Kolos Kovalivka:Dmytro Sukhonos – for Anton Salabay – - 90'Andriy Tsurikov –
Kolos Kovalivka:Andriy Tsurikov –
Before kick-off (provisional): 78% · 15% · 8%(Shakhtar Donetsk · draw · Kolos Kovalivka)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 2–1 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Shakhtar Donetsk €5.7M, Kolos Kovalivka €515K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 9: 446 points.
- Draw chance was 15%, below the Premier League average of 24% this round.
- Premier League: D. Riznyk was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2195).
- Style contrast in attacking (Premier League): Shakhtar Donetsk ranked #1 of 15, Kolos Kovalivka #12.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st in Premier League · 21 pts from 8
- 14 OctWAEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League2058
- 9 OctWVeres Rivne Ukraine Premier League2055
- 20 SepWLNZ Cherkasy Ukraine Premier League1967
- 14 SepWChornomorets Ukraine Premier League1924
- 10 SepDPSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League2001
Kolos Kovalivka
9th in Premier League · 8 pts from 7
- 10 OctWEpitsentr Dunayivtsi Ukraine Premier League1561
- 5 SepDKryvbas KR Ukraine Premier League1542
- 28 AugDObolon'-Brovar Ukraine Premier League1546
- 16 AugLDynamo Kyiv Ukraine Premier League1581
- 31 JulLZorya Luhansk Ukraine Premier League1574
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 21 /8 | 73.0 | 91% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 8 /7 | 37.3 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Shakhtar Donetsk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 2122
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Shakhtar Donetsk: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Arda Turan plays) · Kolos Kovalivka: balanced profile (how Ruslan Kostyshyn plays)